Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1152 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

Dew points were slowly increasing across central and eastern Kansas.
Dew points around 50 vary across the CWA with a nose of 55 degree
plus dew points extending north across far eastern Kansas with LWC
now up to 56 degrees at 19Z. Latest meso analysis shows an MCV
moving across southern Missouri with SBCAPE around 1500 J/KG in far
east central and southeast Kansas at 19Z. Cap remains in place
across much of the CWA extending into northwest Kansas. Cold front
extended from east central South Dakota into northeast Colorado
while the dryline extended from southwest Nebraska to the east of
Liberal.

Short range high resolution models suggest that convection will
develop in the 23Z to 00Z time period from northeast Nebraska
southwest to near Phillipsburg and Hays. Storms congeal into a line
and move into north central Kansas after 7 PM and increasing across
the western counties through 10 PM, then becoming widespread across
the CWA as the upper trough and front move through. 850 mb moisture
transport increases along the 850 mb front tonight as it moves
through. Low level jet increasing to 40 to 50 kts from the south
will veer to the southwest gradually through the night focusing
potential for locally heavy rainfall across northeast and east
central Kansas in the 06Z-12Z time frame. Have increased QPF to
around 0.90 inches in east central Kansas. Shear around 35 to 40 kts
and instability around 1200 J/kg along with cooling aloft with the
wave moving through will yield environment for some storms to be
severe this evening across north central and northeast Kansas with
wind and hail the main hazards as the line moves through. Overnight
wave moving through the Rockies will move out into the Plains
developing precipitation in the wake of the front and also
increasing ascent across eastern Kansas. The front is expected to
move south of the CWA into southeast Kansas Thursday morning then
stalling out from southern Kansas and southern Missouri atmosphere
across east central and southeast Kansas becomes capped during the
day. 850 mb front will be near the southern CWA and could see some
development in the late afternoon when a weak wave moves through and
cap erodes in the 22Z-00Z period. Temperatures will be about 15
degrees cooler on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

The surface front should be located somewhere across southeast
Kansas by late Thursday with greatest risk for surface based
convection expected to remain near or just southeast of the CWA
after 00z. However the next upper wave will emerge across the
region Thu night and will act to produce another area of rain
across most of the state. Modest forcing and dry air will act to
limit amounts but most areas should see a least a period of light
rain showers overnight into early Friday before skies clear and
high pressure moves into the area for the weekend.

The weekend looks great with highs in the 60s and 70s and low
humidities. South winds will increase by late day Saturday so
could pose fire weather issues again. The dry weather should
persist through Sunday as Gulf of Mexico moisture will be slow to
return to the area this weekend. The forecast weather pattern by
next Monday and Tuesday will feature a longwave trough across the
Rockies with sfc low pressure somewhere across the Plains. Latest
GFS is more progressive with an initial wave Monday which forces a
sfc low into eastern Nebraska and dryline across Kansas while the
ECMWF is much slower and features a low across eastern CO with a
warm front draped across the state. Both show additional energy
moving into the Plains which could set the stage for bouts of
thunderstorms into mid week. The details such as timing and
location of features remain uncertain as does the associated
severe weather risk but it would appear that next week could be
active across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

Again only made small adjustments to TAFs with front and incoming
rain/storms around the 07-08z hour and continuing overnight. Skies
become VFR for Thursday with a late day cloud deck possible but
too late in the forecast period for this issuance.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
148 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-030700-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
148 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...IMPACTING THE MANHATTAN...JUNCTION CITY...AND HIAWATHA
AREAS AFTER 2 AM...THE TOPEKA AND EMPORIA AREAS AROUND 4 AM...AND
THE LAWRENCE AND OTTAWA AREAS AFTER 5 AM. MOST OF THIS OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE NON SEVERE...BUT A FEW OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1240 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

KSZ009-010-020615-
MARSHALL-WASHINGTON-
1240 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 115 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT
40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THESE STORMS WERE
PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND THEY ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE WASHINGTON...CLIFTON...LINN...BARNES...
WATERVILLE...MARYSVILLE...AND BLUE RAPIDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 9648 3957 9656 3957 9737 3974 9737
      3987 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 276DEG 33KT 3985 9695 3971 9698

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
109 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     HAIL             20 W MARYSVILLE         39.84N 97.02W
04/02/2015  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MAINLY PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL BUT A FEW UP TO QUARTER
            SIZE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
118 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 AM     HAIL             6 N WELLS               39.23N 97.55W
04/02/2015  E0.75 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MAINLY PEA SIZE BUT SOME AS LARGE AS PENNIES.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
123 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 AM     HAIL             MARYSVILLE              39.84N 96.65W
04/02/2015  E0.50 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO HALF INCH HAIL IN MARYSVILLE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
138 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

KSZ021-022-034>036-020715-
CLAY-DICKINSON-GEARY-OTTAWA-RILEY-
138 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL RILEY...EAST CENTRAL
OTTAWA...SOUTHERN CLAY...NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON AND NORTHWESTERN
GEARY COUNTIES...

THROUGH 215 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL RILEY...EAST CENTRAL OTTAWA...
SOUTHERN CLAY...NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON AND NORTHWESTERN GEARY
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
WAKEFIELD...MILFORD LAKE...MILFORD...RILEY AND LEONARDVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3940 9683 3915 9675 3908 9740 3926 9746
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 257DEG 35KT 3919 9731

BOWEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
156 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

KSZ021-020730-
CLAY-
156 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY...

THROUGH 230 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS AROUND 55 MPH ON THE BACKSIDE OR NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
IDANA...MORGANVILLE...CLAY CENTER AND GREEN.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3955 9704 3936 9696 3927 9737 3938 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0655Z 244DEG 34KT 3931 9736

BOWEN