Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Topeka, KS

538 
WWUS53 KTOP 071539
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1039 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

KSC045-071549-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-150507T1600Z/
DOUGLAS-
1039 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3883 9523 3874 9545 3874 9550 3875 9550
      3884 9550 3895 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1539Z 234DEG 21KT 3882 9541

$$

SANDERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 AM CDT Thu May 7 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave through moving northeast
across the plains with northeast Kansas just behind the trough
axis. Large scale subsidence was likely contributing to the lack
of thunderstorm coverage over the area after midnight. As the
surface, a cold front was approaching from the northwest. At 08
UTC, the front extended from central Nebraska southwest into
Colorado. The cold front is forecast to move east reaching our
northwest counties by late in the day. Ahead of the boundary,
southeast flow continues with little or no forcing to support
additional thunderstorm development. However, the atmosphere
remains unstable with very little cap. Will keep small POPs in the
forecast today before the front arrives late this afternoon.

For tonight...there should be enough convergence near the front
late this afternoon the release the instability and for
thunderstorms to develop. The wind fields are much weaker this
afternoon compared to yesterday and there isn't a strong shortwave
moving through. This is good news concerning severe storms, but
the weaker wind fields and a slow moving boundary could result in
more heavy rainfall. PW's are closer to 1.20 inches which is still
very moist, but less than the last couple of days. Short term
trends will need to be monitored for a possible flash flood watch
if the rain develops over areas recently hit hard by heavy rain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

The cold front should be somewhere over eastern Kansas Friday
morning. There is plenty of uncertainty about how far south it
will go before heading back north as a warm front. The 00 UTC GFS
brings the boundary as far south as our southern counties Friday
and then it starts to move slowly north. The 00 UTC NAM was very
similar with respect to the frontal position. There should not be
strong forcing aloft with general southwest flow on Friday. Near the
boundary, the airmass should once again be unstable and
thunderstorms should develop and then move northeast into
northeast Kansas Friday night producing another round of
potentially heavy rainfall.

The whole system moves out of the desert southwest on Saturday and
Sunday. Severe weather parameters increase again Saturday
afternoon. Based on current model solutions, the storms should
initiate southwest of northeast Kansas and them move into the area
Saturday night. Will go high POPS for this scenario.

On Sunday, we remain in the warm sector and there it still
potential for more severe weather, but the high probabilities appear
to be east of northeast Kansas. Drier weather is in store for
early next which will be a welcome change.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

The winds decoupled late in the night, but they should increase
this morning by mid morning. Otherwise, expect a VFR cig to
develop this morning. Frontal boundary is expected to approach
this evening and we are expecting more showers and thunderstorms.
Forecast prevailing showers in the TAFS with vcnty T for several
hours tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 621 AM CDT THU MAY 7 20

Hydro (Rivers)

Last night's rainfall across far north central into south central
Nebraska ranged from 4 to 8 inches. Southerly streamflow lead to a
moderate rise in minor creeks across portions of Republic, Cloud,
Clay, Washington, and Marshall counties. One stream in particular is
currently under a River Flood Warning through tomorrow for the
Republican River near Scandia due to minor flooding forecast.
Meanwhile, further downstream on the Republican river and the Big Blue
River will see gradual rising to minor flood stage through the next
few days. If additional rainfall occurs in these areas or further
north over the next few days, previous bankfull creeks will greatly
increase the threat for river flooding.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson
HYDROLOGY...Bowen

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
522 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-081030-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
522 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE TORNADO
RISK IS MUCH LESS THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH MIGHT CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE REPUBLICAN RIVER NEAR
SCANDIA IN REPUBLIC COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND ALL
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
FLOODING.

THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RISK
OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
835 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 N WELLS               39.22N 97.55W
05/07/2015  M1.67 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL. PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL ALSO
            REPORTED.

&&

EH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
907 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

KSZ055-071430-
OSAGE-
907 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY...

THROUGH 930 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE SCRANTON AND
CARBONDALE.

&&

LAT...LON 3855 9582 3865 9593 3887 9572 3887 9567
      3872 9550 3870 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1407Z 229DEG 32KT 3864 9581

SANDERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
914 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

KSZ054-071445-
LYON-
914 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY...

THROUGH 945 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE OLPE...
EMPORIA AIRPORT...EMPORIA...HARTFORD AND NEOSHO RAPIDS.

MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 131 AND 140 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9632 3821 9636 3826 9636 3850 9609
      3836 9595 3828 9595 3817 9621
TIME...MOT...LOC 1414Z 237DEG 35KT 3825 9624

SANDERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
944 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

KSZ039-040-055-056-071530-
DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-OSAGE-SHAWNEE-
944 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...NORTHERN
OSAGE...WESTERN DOUGLAS AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1030 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...NORTHERN OSAGE...WESTERN
DOUGLAS AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE OVERBROOK...
RICHLAND...GLOBE...LONE STAR...CLINTON LAKE...CLINTON AND PLEASANT
GROVE.

&&

LAT...LON 3903 9546 3881 9521 3857 9569 3872 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 1445Z 233DEG 26KT 3874 9564

SANDERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
953 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

KSZ054-055-058-071530-
COFFEY-LYON-OSAGE-
953 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE...SOUTHEASTERN
LYON AND NORTHERN COFFEY COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1030 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE...SOUTHEASTERN LYON AND
NORTHERN COFFEY COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE HARTFORD...NEOSHO RAPIDS...
JOHN REDMOND RESERVOIR...NEW STRAWN...COFFEY COUNTY AIRPORT...LEBO...
MELVERN LAKE...BETO JUNCTION AND OLIVET.

MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 140 AND 158 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 9597 3817 9597 3817 9613 3821 9619
      3860 9586 3834 9556 3808 9596 3808 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 1454Z 230DEG 26KT 3824 9600

SANDERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1017 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

KSZ040-055-056-058-059-071615-
ANDERSON-COFFEY-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-OSAGE-
1017 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN
ANDERSON...NORTHEASTERN COFFEY...SOUTH CENTRAL DOUGLAS AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1115 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON...
NORTHEASTERN COFFEY...SOUTH CENTRAL DOUGLAS AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE WILLIAMSBURG...QUENEMO...POMONA LAKE...POMONA...
PRINCETON...OTTAWA...CENTROPOLIS AND RANTOUL.

MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 157 AND 194 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 9506 3828 9555 3853 9581 3884 9526
      3860 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1517Z 233DEG 24KT 3848 9557

SANDERS