Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
317 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

An upper level trough located across eastern MT and western SD will
dig southeast across the central plains Tonight. At the surface a
cold front extended from western IA...southwest into southeast NE,
then west across southern NE. An outflow boundary was slowly pushing
southwest across the CWA and extended from near LWC...southwest to
Abilene. This outflow boundary will probably stall out in its
current position. The mesoscale models show a cluster of storms
developing across west central NE as the H5 trough approaches. These
storms will move southeast and intensify as they encounter deeper
moisture and instability across north central KS. MLCAPES early this
afternoon were already 2000 to 3000 j/kg. As the northwesterly mid
and upper flow increases the effective sfc to 6km shear should
increase to 40 to 50 kts. Any discrete surface based storms that
develop along the outflow boundary may intensify into supercell
thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail and damaging wind
gusts. If a storm rides the boundary or propagates to the right of
mean shear vector than these supercells may capable of producing
isolated tornadoes late this afternoon into the early evening hours.
Once the storms in NE congeal into a squall line or MCS than
damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard as
the complex of storms move southeast across the CWA this evening.

The front and/or outflow ahead of the thunderstorm complex should
move south of the CWA after midnight. Ascent ahead of the upper
trough and isentropic lift north of the boundary will keep the
chance for rain and elevated thunderstorms into the early morning
hours of Friday.

Friday...Any morning showers across the southeast counties of the
CWA will move southeast into southwest MO by the mid morning hours,
as the upper trough digs southeast into the mid MS river valley.
Friday will be cooler with northeast winds of 10 to 20 MPH and gusts
to 25 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours. Skies will
become mostly sunny by noon across the entire CWA. Highs will be
cooler with lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

Strong sfc high will settle into the region Fri night with light
winds and very dry air in place expect lows to drop into the 40s by
Sat morning. Pleasant/quiet weather will persist through the weekend
since do not feel the current QPF depiction of the NAM is too far
east on Saturday and feel that any precip should remain to the west
of the CWA Sat.

By Sunday breezy south winds will return along with warmer temps but
humidities will remain low given the sfc high will push into the
Gulf over the weekend. Southwest flow aloft will establish across
the Plains into next week with lee troughing which will produce
windy and warm conds through mid week. Next chc for precip appears
to be Weds or Thurs as a sfc front attempts to sag toward the state.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

Storms are expected to develop north of the KS/NE boarder and move
SE across the terminals.  Timing is still a bit tricky but believe
storms could be near the terminals by 21-22Z, with the main line
later between 00-04Z bringing a drop in visbys/cigs.  Rain with
thunder and lightning will persist behind the main line, with a
clearing early morning. After this, VFR can be expected.

&&

.TOP
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10
PM CDT FOR
KSC027-029-041-061-111-117-127-143-149-157-161-197-201. &&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Heller

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
236 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-111945-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
236 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS NEBRASKA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 4PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 4PM THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
448 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

KSZ058-102215-
COFFEY-
448 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COFFEY COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

AT 448 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
JOHN REDMOND RESERVOIR...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...NEW STRAWN AND JOHN REDMOND RESERVOIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9595 3827 9593 3825 9570 3808 9570
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 266DEG 5KT 3821 9589

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
515 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

KSZ058-102245-
COFFEY-
515 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COFFEY COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM CDT...

AT 515 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
JOHN REDMOND RESERVOIR...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...NEW STRAWN AND JOHN REDMOND RESERVOIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 9590 3827 9589 3826 9565 3810 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 258DEG 8KT 3822 9584