Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE PUSH FROM THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE TERMINALS FROM 20-23Z TIME FRAME
GENERALLY ADVANCING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AFTER THAT, MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VARYING VIS/CIG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND THEN A PERIOD OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING EARLY BEFORE GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER AROUND THE 14Z TIME FRAME. AFTER
FROPA, WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...DRAKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-072015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
305 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WINDS TO 70 MPH. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY AND
MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING IS SOUTH OF AN ABILENE TO
WESTMORELAND TO HIAWATHA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM EMPORIA TO LAWRENCE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 10 PM.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
301 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

KSZ024-026-039-062030-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-SHAWNEE-
301 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SHAWNEE...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

AT 301 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES EAST OF DELIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VALLEY FALLS...HOYT...NORTONVILLE...MAYETTA...DENISON AND DELIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3938 9519 3911 9587 3925 9597 3947 9557
      3942 9557 3942 9518 3939 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 242DEG 13KT 3923 9585

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE GRANDVIEW PLAZA    38.99N 96.74W
07/06/2015  E70 MPH          GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL 2-3 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

BAERG

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