River Flood Warning 62, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1116 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

An intense closed upper low was located across west TX and will lift
northeast across eastern KS tonight, then into northern MO by 12Z
MON. Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms through the remainder
of the early morning hours but as the the mid level flow becomes
more meridional the instability will decrease enough to prevent any
elevated isolated thunderstorms through the day. We will see periods
of light to at times moderate rain across the CWA.

The surface boundary has been slowly lifting northwest through the
early morning hours and should remain nearly stationary along a
Council Grove to Holton line. This afternoon the front will slowly
push southeast and frontolysis  may occur during the early
evening hours across southeast KS. A stronger cold front will push
southeast into north central KS Tonight but lows behind the front
should remain a degree or two above freezing across the western
counties of the CWA. Highs Today across east central KS, ahead of
the cold front, will be during the morning hours with highs in the
lower to mid 60s. Temperatures will begin to fall back through the
50s into the upper 40s across most of east central KS during the
afternoon hours. The remainder of the CWA will remain in the 40s
through the day.

Tonight, as the upper level low lifts northeast into northern OK
heavier snow will form within the TROWAL region within the stronger
deformation zone on the west and northwest side of the upper low.
Heavier snow should develop from the TX Panhandle northeast across
west central KS. Most models show enough warm air wrapping around
the 850mb low to keep the precip in the form of rain through the
evening hours across north central KS. During the early morning
hours of Monday there may be enough sustained ascent for the column
to cool enough for the rain to mix with snow or change to snow. The
NAM and to some extent the ECMWF show the stronger dynamic lift
cooling the vertical column for a brief period of snow. However,
both the NAM and ECMWF show the stronger ascent lifting northeast
into NE after 12Z TUE, so any wet snow accumulations should be
rather light. The 00Z GFS keeps the vertical profile in the
lower layers of the atmosphere warm enough for all rain through the
night across north central KS. If the NAM model verifies, the
extreme western half of Republic and cloud counties could see about
an inch and half of wet snow accumulations on grassy surfaces.
Farther east into Washington, Clay and Dickinson counties expect
only a dusting of snow on grassy surfaces. Overnight lows will
remain above freezing, thus I do not see any travel problems for
area roadways across our far western counties. I suppose the next
shift will have to watch for a farther southward movement of the
upper low which could shift the heavier snow axis a bit east into
the western counties of the CWA. But most models and WPC show the
heaviest snow axis across southwest and west central KS Tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

Precipitation may be a bit slower to exit the area on Monday as
models show some light precipitation from the back-edge of the
exiting storm system still present across far northeast Kansas.
While most of this light precipitation should be in the form of
rain, temperatures may be close enough to the freezing mark to have
some light snow mixed in with the rain. Conditions should dry out by
late morning/early afternoon as a weak mid-level ridge builds into
the area.  While there doesn't look to be much in the way of cold
air advection behind this system, the combination of northwesterly
winds and low clouds likely not scattering out until the afternoon
hours may hinder temperatures a bit, so have highs in the mid/upper
40s. However, if the low clouds are able to scatter out sooner in
the day, then temperatures may be a few degrees warmer.

Another closed mid-level low moves into the Rockies Monday night,
lifting into the central High Plains on Tuesday. Models have been
continuing to trend a bit further north with this system, keeping
the majority of the precipitation across Nebraska and the Dakotas.
However there is still a slight chance for some light precipitation
to skim along the KS/NE border in north central KS so have kept some
slight chance PoPs for Tue/Tue night. Models show a decent pressure
gradient setting up over the area on Tuesday with the approaching
surface low situated over western Kansas. This breezy southerly flow
along with mostly sunny skies should result in warmer conditions and
have increased Tue. highs a bit in east central KS, with highs
ranging from the mid 40s to upper 50s from northwest to southeast.
Expect better cold-air advection as this system shifts to the north,
resulting in high temperatures Wed through Fri dropping into the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Surface high pressure should become centered
over the region on Saturday and shift to the east by Saturday night,
so expect a warming trend by the latter part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

Rain continues to fall over the entire area this afternoon into the
evening.  Expect conditions to stay predominately IFR, although
lighter showers may bring brief periods of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities.  Expect ceilings to lift to MVFR between 03-04Z and
maintain this category through the end of the period.  Precipitation
will end near 12Z tomorrow and west-northwest winds will become
gusty.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Heller

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
353 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-141000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
353 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ABILENE TO WASHINGTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
944 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CLAY CENTER             39.38N 97.12W
12/13/2015  M2.80 INCH       CLAY               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1113 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       10 SSW JUNCTION CITY    38.89N 96.90W
12/13/2015  M3.11 INCH       GEARY              KS   MESONET

            24 TOTAL AT ROCK SPRINGS MESONET SITE

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CLAY CENTER             39.38N 97.12W
12/13/2015  M2.97 INCH       CLAY               KS   MESONET

            24 HOUR TOTAL FROM CLAY MESONET SITE

&&

KC