River Flood Warning 52, NWS Topeka, KS

670 
WGUS83 KTOP 111706
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1206 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas...

  Black Vermillion River at Frankfort affecting Marshall County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas..
  Big Blue River near Blue Rapids affecting Marshall County
  Buffalo Creek near Jamestown affecting Cloud County
  Republican River at Clay Center affecting Clay County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC117-120106-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.150604T2022Z.150607T1000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1206 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Blue River near Blue Rapids.
* until further notice.
* At 11:00 AM Thursday the stage was 34.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 37.5 feet by 
  Saturday morning then begin falling. The river will remain above
  flood stage through next week due to backwater from Tuttle Creek
  Lake.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs from 
  Marysville to Tuttle Creek Lake.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9666 3968 9658 3957 9655 3957 9659 3968 9669




$$

KSC117-120106-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0054.150611T1732Z-150613T1054Z/
/FKFK1.1.ER.150611T1732Z.150612T0600Z.150612T2254Z.NO/
1206 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black Vermillion River at Frankfort.
* until late Friday night.
* At 11:30 AM Thursday the stage was 16.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 23.4 feet by early Friday morning.The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...Minor flooding of lowland areas occurs along
  the river from Vermillion to the mouth of the Black Vermillion 
  River.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 9643 3967 9639 3957 9656 3963 9657




$$

KSC029-120106-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0052.150612T0034Z-150614T0312Z/
/JMSK1.1.ER.150612T0034Z.150612T1200Z.150613T0912Z.NR/
1206 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Buffalo Creek near Jamestown.
* from this evening to Saturday evening.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The creek is forecast to have a maximum value of 18.0 
  feet Friday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...The north bank of the Buffalo Creek Floods. 
  Lowland flooding continues from 763 Road to the Republican River.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9793 3960 9772 3958 9772 3961 9793




$$

KSC027-120106-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0053.150612T0120Z-150615T1040Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.150612T0120Z.150613T0000Z.150614T2240Z.NO/
1206 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Republican River at Clay Center.
* from this evening to late Sunday night.
* At 11:45 AM Thursday the stage was 9.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 18.7 feet by Friday evening.The river will fall below 
  flood stage by Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Lowland agricultural flooding occurs from 
  U.S. Highway 24 to Milford Lake.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Flooding occurs between 16th...17th and
  18th Roads and between Limestone and Osage Roads.


&&

LAT...LON 3957 9741 3957 9726 3929 9700 3926 9706




$$

749 
WGUS83 KTOP 112159
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
459 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas...

  Republican River at Clay Center affecting Clay County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas..
  Big Blue River near Blue Rapids affecting Marshall County
  Black Vermillion River at Frankfort affecting Marshall County
  Buffalo Creek near Jamestown affecting Cloud County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC117-120559-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.150604T2022Z.150607T1000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
459 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Blue River near Blue Rapids.
* until further notice.
* At  4:00 PM Thursday the stage was 35.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 37.5 feet by 
  Saturday morning then begin falling.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9666 3968 9658 3957 9655 3957 9659 3968 9669




$$

KSC117-120559-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-150613T1054Z/
/FKFK1.1.ER.150611T1800Z.150612T0600Z.150612T2254Z.NO/
459 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black Vermillion River at Frankfort.
* until late Friday night.
* At  4:30 PM Thursday the stage was 21.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 23.4 feet by 
  early Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Friday 
  afternoon.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 9643 3967 9639 3957 9656 3963 9657




$$

KSC029-120559-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0052.150612T0034Z-150614T0312Z/
/JMSK1.1.ER.150612T0034Z.150612T1200Z.150613T0912Z.NR/
459 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Buffalo Creek near Jamestown.
* until Saturday evening.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 18.0 
  feet Friday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...The north bank of the Buffalo Creek Floods. 
  Lowland flooding continues from 763 Road to the Republican River.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9793 3960 9772 3958 9772 3961 9793




$$

KSC027-120559-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0053.150612T0654Z-150615T1600Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.150612T0654Z.150613T0600Z.150615T0400Z.NO/
459 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Republican River at Clay Center.
* from late tonight to Monday morning.
* At  4:45 PM Thursday the stage was 10.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Friday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 18.7 feet by early Saturday morning.The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Sunday before midnight.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Flooding occurs between 16th...17th and 18th
  Roads and between Limestone and Osage Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9741 3957 9726 3929 9700 3926 9706




$$

472 
WGUS83 KTOP 120253
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
953 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas...

  Black Vermillion River at Frankfort affecting Marshall County
  Buffalo Creek near Jamestown affecting Cloud County
  Republican River at Clay Center affecting Clay County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas..
  Big Blue River near Blue Rapids affecting Marshall County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC117-121053-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.150604T2022Z.150607T1000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
953 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Blue River near Blue Rapids.
* until further notice.
* At  9:00 PM Thursday the stage was 35.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 35.4 feet by 
  early Friday morning then begin falling.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9666 3968 9658 3957 9655 3957 9659 3968 9669




$$

KSC117-121053-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-150613T0325Z/
/FKFK1.1.ER.150611T1800Z.150612T0600Z.150612T1525Z.NO/
953 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black Vermillion River at Frankfort.
* until Friday evening.
* At  9:30 PM Thursday the stage was 23.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 23.4 feet by 
  early Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage late 
  Friday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 9643 3967 9639 3957 9656 3963 9657




$$

KSC029-121053-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-150614T0136Z/
/JMSK1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150612T1200Z.150613T0736Z.NR/
953 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Buffalo Creek near Jamestown.
* until Saturday evening.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 18.0 
  feet Friday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...The north bank of the Buffalo Creek Floods. 
  Lowland flooding continues from 763 Road to the Republican River.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9793 3960 9772 3958 9772 3961 9793




$$

KSC027-121053-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0053.150612T0734Z-150615T1545Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.150612T0734Z.150613T1200Z.150615T0345Z.NO/
953 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Republican River at Clay Center.
* from late tonight to Monday morning.
* At  9:30 PM Thursday the stage was 13.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Friday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 18.5 feet by Saturday morning.The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Sunday before midnight.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Flooding occurs between 16th...17th and 18th
  Roads and between Limestone and Osage Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9741 3957 9726 3929 9700 3926 9706




$$

806 
WGUS83 KTOP 120837
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
337 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas..
  Big Blue River near Blue Rapids affecting Marshall County
  Black Vermillion River at Frankfort affecting Marshall County
  Buffalo Creek near Jamestown affecting Cloud County
  Republican River at Clay Center affecting Clay County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC117-121637-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.150604T2022Z.150607T1000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
337 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Blue River near Blue Rapids.
* until further notice.
* At  3:00 AM Friday the stage was 35.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 35.4 feet by this
  morning. Additional rises may be possible thereafter. The river is 
  expected to remain in flood through Wednesday. 

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9666 3968 9658 3957 9655 3957 9659 3968 9669




$$

KSC117-121637-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-150613T0325Z/
/FKFK1.1.ER.150611T1800Z.150612T0645Z.150612T1525Z.NO/
337 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black Vermillion River at Frankfort.
* until this evening.
* At  2:30 AM Friday the stage was 23.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will begin falling this morning and should 
  fall below flood stage by late this morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 9643 3967 9639 3957 9656 3963 9657




$$

KSC029-121637-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-150614T0136Z/
/JMSK1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150612T1200Z.150613T0736Z.NR/
337 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Buffalo Creek near Jamestown.
* until Saturday evening.
* At  3:30 AM Friday the stage was estimated at 17.6 feet. 
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to crest at 18.0 feet this morning
  and fall below flood stage early Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...The north bank of the Buffalo Creek Floods. 
  Lowland flooding continues from 763 Road to the Republican River.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9793 3960 9772 3958 9772 3961 9793




$$

KSC027-121637-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-150615T1545Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.150612T0615Z.150613T1200Z.150615T0345Z.NO/
337 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Republican River at Clay Center.
* until Monday morning.
* At  3:15 AM Friday the stage was 15.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.5 feet by 
  Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  before midnight.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Flooding occurs between 16th...17th and 18th
  Roads and between Limestone and Osage Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9741 3957 9726 3929 9700 3926 9706




$$

444 
WGUS83 KTOP 121601
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1101 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following streams in 
Kansas...

  Black Vermillion River at Frankfort affecting Marshall County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas..
  Big Blue River near Blue Rapids affecting Marshall County
  Buffalo Creek near Jamestown affecting Cloud County
  Republican River at Clay Center affecting Clay County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC117-130001-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.150604T2022Z.150607T1000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Blue River near Blue Rapids.
* until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM Friday the stage was 34.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 35.0 feet by 
  early Saturday morning then begin to slowly fall. However the river should
  remain in minor flood through at least the middle of next week. 

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9666 3968 9658 3957 9655 3957 9659 3968 9669




$$

KSC029-130000-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-150614T0136Z/
/JMSK1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150612T1800Z.150613T0736Z.NR/
1101 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Buffalo Creek near Jamestown.
* until Saturday evening.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 18.0 
  feet this afternoon.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...The north bank of the Buffalo Creek Floods. 
  Lowland flooding continues from 763 Road to the Republican River.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9793 3960 9772 3958 9772 3961 9793




$$

KSC027-130000-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-150615T1545Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.150612T0615Z.150613T1200Z.150615T0345Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Republican River at Clay Center.
* until Monday morning.
* At 10:45 AM Friday the stage was 17.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.4 feet by 
  Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  before midnight.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Flooding occurs between 16th...17th and 18th
  Roads and between Limestone and Osage Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9741 3957 9726 3929 9700 3926 9706




$$

KSC117-121631-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-150613T0325Z/
/FKFK1.1.ER.150611T1800Z.150612T0645Z.150612T1417Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Black Vermillion River at Frankfort.
* At 10:30 AM Friday the stage was 17.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  9:17 AM Friday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 10.5 feet by Saturday
  morning.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...Minor flooding of lowland areas occurs along
  the river from Vermillion to the mouth of the Black Vermillion 
  River.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 9643 3967 9639 3957 9656 3963 9657




$$

458 
WGUS83 KTOP 122331
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
631 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas..
  Big Blue River near Blue Rapids affecting Marshall County
  Buffalo Creek near Jamestown affecting Cloud County
  Republican River at Clay Center affecting Clay County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC117-130731-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.150604T2022Z.150607T1000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
631 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Blue River near Blue Rapids.
* until further notice.
* At  6:00 PM Friday the stage was 34.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 35.0 feet by 
  early Saturday morning then begin falling. The river will remain
  above flood stage through much of next week due to backwater
  from Tuttle Creek Lake.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs from 
  Marysville to Tuttle Creek Lake.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9666 3968 9658 3957 9655 3957 9659 3968 9669




$$

KSC029-130731-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-150614T0136Z/
/JMSK1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150613T0000Z.150613T0736Z.NR/
631 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Buffalo Creek near Jamestown.
* until Saturday evening.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 17.7 
  feet this evening.
* Impact...At 16.9 feet...Farm field along the north bank of the 
  Buffalo Creek floods.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9793 3960 9772 3958 9772 3961 9793




$$

KSC027-130731-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-150615T1545Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.150612T0615Z.150613T1200Z.150615T0345Z.NO/
631 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Republican River at Clay Center.
* until Monday morning.
* At  6:15 PM Friday the stage was 17.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.4 feet by 
  Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  before midnight.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Flooding occurs between 16th...17th and 18th
  Roads and between Limestone and Osage Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9741 3957 9726 3929 9700 3926 9706




$$

877 
WGUS83 KTOP 130359
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1058 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following streams in 
Kansas...

  Buffalo Creek near Jamestown affecting Cloud County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas...

  Republican River at Clay Center affecting Clay County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following streams in Kansas..
  Big Blue River near Blue Rapids affecting Marshall County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...Do not drive into flooded areas. Shallow flowing 
water can wash a car from the roadway. Also, the roadbed may be 
washed out under the water.

Stay tuned to later developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio 
and local media.

&&

KSC117-131158-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.150604T2022Z.150607T1000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1058 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Blue River near Blue Rapids.
* until further notice.
* At 10:00 PM Friday the stage was 34.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 35.3 feet by 
  Sunday early afternoon then begin falling. The river will remain
  above flood stage through much of next week due to backwater
  from Tuttle Creek Lake.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs from 
  Marysville to Tuttle Creek Lake.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9666 3968 9658 3957 9655 3957 9659 3968 9669




$$

KSC027-131158-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-150615T1500Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.150612T0615Z.150613T1200Z.150615T0300Z.NO/
1058 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Republican River at Clay Center.
* until Monday morning.
* At 10:30 PM Friday the stage was 17.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.8 feet by 
  Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  before midnight.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Flooding occurs between 16th...17th and 18th
  Roads and between Limestone and Osage Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9741 3957 9726 3929 9700 3926 9706




$$

KSC029-130428-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-150614T0136Z/
/JMSK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1058 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Buffalo Creek near Jamestown.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The creek is forecast below flood stage with a maximum 
  value of 15.5 feet early Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Minor flooding begins along the creek as the
  south bank overflows.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9793 3960 9772 3958 9772 3961 9793




$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

Early Thursday morning, a large MCS was tracking steadily east
across the forecast area, driven by a well-developed short wave
trough and 50 kt LLJ impinging upon an outflow boundary and
providing a continuous moisture influx across KS. According to
observations across the area, much of the stronger convection on the
leading edge of the system with more access to instability has
actually had weaker rainfall rates than expected with a bit of drier
air to overcome. However, the second and third rounds of enhanced
convection in some areas have had rates in the 1-1.5 inch per hour
range. So, while the leading edge of the MCS continues its eastward
progression, the attention is on the potential for continued
redevelopment on the western fringes of the MCS but still in advance
of the short wave energy aloft. In recent hours, have seen these
enhancements in central KS, including a particularly impressive
enhancement in conjunction with an MCV just west of Concordia at 330
AM. Will need to closely monitor flash flood potential with any
additional convection through the morning given the intense rainfall
rates as any persistent storms over an area could easily lead to
localized flash flooding. FWIW, dual pol precip estimates appear to
have been a bit high especially in north central KS while the legacy
estimates have been a bit low based on ground truth observations.
Expect this MCS to linger across northeast Kansas through around mid
morning before weakening and moving east of the area by noon as the
LLJ also weakens.

A primary question regarding late day thunderstorm forecast is just
how much the atmosphere will recover in the wake of morning
activity. Current expectation is that boundary layer moisture will
be ample in the wake of the system and temperatures will probably
recover well by mid afternoon, but the mid level lapse rates are
expected to be unimpressive. This should result in somewhere between
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in advance of an incoming cold front from
the north. Deep layer wind shear is likely to be in the 30-40 kt
range and sufficient for some storm organization although would like
to see steeper lapse rates before getting excited about severe
weather potential. Even still, potential for supercell structures
especially within the first few hours of development support some
hail potential. Tornado potential appears quite low (but not
impossible) and limited to the late afternoon and very early evening
hours. Locally damaging winds may be the greatest threat (although
still on the low end) through the afternoon and evening owing to the
presence of a 40 kt LLJ and potential for bowing segments near the
front. The atmosphere will be primed for heavy rain as well, but
unsure of the flash flood potential as it appears that individual
updrafts should be moving and the front steadily advancing. Even
still, plan to closely monitor the ongoing morning precipitation
closely in terms of its impact on afternoon/evening flood potential
and evaluate the potential for a flash flood watch a bit later this
morning.

There are suggestions that with the LLJ becoming largely parallel to
the frontal boundary late this evening into the overnight hours that
convergence will be minimized in the local CWA and convective
coverage may shrink as the night progresses despite an otherwise
favorable environment.

The early morning weather today...complex in its own right...
complicates the afternoon forecast a bit as well. With that in mind,
forecast confidence is near average, particularly regarding
convective coverage this evening and overnight...severe weather
potential...and associated rainfall amounts.

---------
UPDATED AT 510 AM REGARDING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
Continue to evaluate flash flood potential this AM, not only with
current precip, but for afternoon thunderstorms. Current activity
has shown signs of general weakening, and unless any intense
training develops, the flash flood potential is quite low with the
exception of Cloud/Republic/Washington counties which have had a
significant amount of rainfall overnight and likely have a few
areas of minor small stream flooding ongoing. The morning precip
does set the stage for higher flood potential later today, but
current thoughts (as supported by WRF-ensemble and individual
HRRR/ARW/NMM runs) are that the front this evening will be
progressive enough and convective updrafts scattered enough that
widespread flooding potential is low. So, will hold off on a flash
flood watch for now, but should continue to monitor through the
day should the forecast change, especially given the high PWAT
values and fairly saturated soil conditions in place.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

Only made minor changes in the extended forecast, as the overall
pattern remains unchanged from previous guidance. Widespread severe
potential wanes during this period as wind profiles through the
column weaken.

On Friday morning, overnight convection may linger with the frontal
boundary across far east central areas. During the afternoon,
guidance depicts a broad southwest upper trough slowing entering
western Kansas. Meanwhile the frontal boundary becomes nearly
stationary from southeast KS through northwest OK. The latest ECMWF
and GEM differ slightly on the track of the PV anomaly being a tad
further east, generating thunderstorms in the afternoon over much of
the CWA. However, the GFS and NAM continue to show a more persistent
solution of a slower trend which would focus best precip chances
south of Interstate 70 in the afternoon, increasing northward across
northeast KS Friday evening and Saturday as the vort max lifts
through the CWA. Widespread showers and thunderstorms remain likely
Friday evening through Monday as weak PVA tracks directly through the
area. Rainfall should not be continuous for the entire time frame,
however saturated conditions in place suggest a moderate or heavy
round or two of rainfall would quickly yield flooding concerns.
Severe potential will be marginal given the weak capping inversion
each afternoon, and the warm, moist sfc conditions yielding high
CAPE values. Hail and gusty winds would be the hazards if this were
to occur.

With the departure of the weak trough on Sunday evening, the upper
low across the southern plains becomes cutoff as the main jetstream
resides over the northern plains. A cool front is expected to stall
over the CWA Monday and Tuesday, providing a focus for possible
showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. Total rainfall through
the period could likely accumulate between 2 to 4 inches, locally
higher for some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

Scattered rain and a few thunderstorms will continue over TAF
sites through mid morning. Even with showers, expect predominant
VFR conditions with ceilings at 5000 feet and above. After morning
showers end, VFR will continue with southerly winds gusting to 25
kts by afternoon. A cold front will approach TAF sites between 23Z
and 01Z with scattered TS along the front. Winds turn out of the
NW with frontal passage and lower ceilings are likely to develop,
currently expected in the low end MVFR range although there is a
small chance for IFR cigs.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
603 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-121115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
603 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. LOCALIZED FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OF SMALL
STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN THIS MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS CAN MOVE
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

FLOODING ALONG THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA.
CERTAINTY IN SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME IS
LOW AS THESE SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK GIVEN THE DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY IN NORTHERN KANSAS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM.
SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN AN INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
737 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FAIRVIEW                39.84N 95.73W
06/11/2015  M1.73 INCH       BROWN              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
738 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ENE ADA               39.17N 97.82W
06/11/2015  E1.71 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
745 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW MANHATTAN          39.16N 96.60W
06/11/2015  E1.22 INCH       RILEY              KS   PUBLIC

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
759 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE JAMESTOWN         39.59N 97.81W
06/11/2015  E1.50 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
804 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MILTONVALE              39.35N 97.45W
06/11/2015  M1.04 INCH       CLOUD              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
809 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 AM     HEAVY RAIN       E HANOVER               39.90N 96.87W
06/11/2015  E1.55 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG