River Flood Warning 12, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
647 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

Monitoring convective development across the Central and High Plains
at this hour, ahead of stronger dynamic upper low lifting across
central New Mexico, and along a leading piece of shortwave energy
moving into north central Oklahoma.  Line of convergence in the
surface winds extends from near Burlington, all the way southwest
into the Texas Panhandle and is aiding in storms developing to the
southwest.  Forecast area started out cloudy but has broken out with
some sunshine and is likely boosting instability for the area.

Still some variability in modes and timing with these two features as
they move across the forecast area, but for the most part moving
first round into the western cwa in the 4-8pm window, with second
following close behind and moving through the area late evening
through the early morning hours. Initial feature coincides with
increasing 0-6km bulk shear into the 40-50 kt range as wind speeds
increase aloft with incoming jet streak, but will also face some
challenges given ongoing moderate rain working over instability in
Central Kansas.  Also hard to find what low level feature storms
will latch on to for stronger enhancement aside from the
aforementioned boundary, but current convection likely to lay down
boundaries and locally enhance storm development as the afternoon
goes on. Lack of a capped atmosphere also makes focal point harder
to determine, and for now have used current convection and incoming
upper waves for forecast timing. Will need to keep an eye on storms
as they move into our area where skies have been sunny and
atmosphere is likely more unstable.  Primary threats from storms
remain large hail and strong winds, with enhanced risk focused along
and west of Topeka, and far western counties still hatched in a
moderate risk. Tornado risk is of a more isolated nature, however
potential for a stronger tornado increases westward into the far
western counties generally west of Abilene. Repeated training of
cells over any one area may also bring locally heavy rainfall and a
risk for localized flooding.

Larger scale upper trof makes a quick exit to  the northeast on
Sunday morning, with areas drying out west to east through sunrise.
Westerly flow behind the wave actually brings a nose of warmer air
in aloft and boosts high temperatures on Sunday from the upper 70s
to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

As the upper trough lifts northeast towards the Great Lakes region,
a cold front surges southeast through the CWA Sunday evening.
Northwest winds around 10 to 15 mph under mostly clear skies will quickly
cool the surface into the 50s for Monday morning. The front becomes
quasi stationary over southern Kansas on Monday with possible
showers developing just south of the CWA. For northeast Kansas,
expect sunny skies, gusty north winds, and cooler highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Upper ridge builds in Tuesday morning as light
winds and strong decoupling of the boundary layer will cool off lows
to the lower 40s. The next open upper trough building over Colorado
will shift east into central KS on Tuesday. Light surface winds veer
towards the east with weak cool air advection and increasing
cloudiness to drop highs into the lower and middle 60s. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms may begin to impact north central Kansas,
with chances increasing to likely Tuesday evening and Wednesday as
all guidance is increasingly similar in the main upper forcing
lifting across the area. Not expecting severe storms with this
system given the limited instability profile.

In the extended period, the passing upper trough shears out as
residual energy ingests into a strong upper low towards the northern
Great Lakes. Lack of strong warm advection and persistent cloud
cover will keep temps through Wednesday in the lower 60s before
southeasterly flow increases Thursday into Friday with a strong
southwest upper trough building towards the plains. Embedded weaker
waves impact the CWA beginning Friday and continuing through the
weekend as the system approaches. At this time, its difficult to
determine the intensity of these storms, however signals of decent
instability and increasing wind shear with the jet max would support
scattered severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

For the 00z TAFs, while low-end VFR conditions should prevail early
this evening, conditions have dropped to MVFR during the more
moderate to heavy thunderstorms near the TAF sites. Some strong
wind gusts may be associated with the stronger storms. Areas of
thunderstorms will continue through much of the evening and early
overnight hours. Soundings show MVFR cigs lingering through the
morning hours on Sunday before clearing out to VFR conditions by
late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Hennecke

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
131 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-171845-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
131 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH AND EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY AFTER 4 PM. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

DISCRETE STORMS WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING
ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO
MORE OF A BROKEN LINE IN WHICH CASE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
EAST INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, WITH A CONTINUED RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
710 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

KSZ056-170045-
FRANKLIN-
710 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY...

THROUGH 745 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE OTTAWA AND WELLSVILLE.

MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 179 AND 197 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 9513 3851 9537 3867 9531 3874 9517
      3874 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 203DEG 32KT 3852 9526

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
715 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW NEOSHO RAPIDS     38.38N 96.02W
05/16/2015                   LYON               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TRAIN WAS STOPPED AND BLOWN OVER BY WIND.

&&

NWS TOPEKA KS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
725 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE OLPE               38.30N 96.10W
05/16/2015                   LYON               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BARNS AND HOMES DAMAGED

&&

NWS TOPEKA KS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1048 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     FLOOD            SCRANTON                38.78N 95.74W
05/16/2015                   OSAGE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            US 56 HIGHWAY SOUTH OF SCRANTON IMPASSIBLE DUE TO WATER
            OVER THE ROADWAY.

1040 PM     FLOOD            CARBONDALE              38.82N 95.69W
05/16/2015                   OSAGE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER REPORTED ACROSS OLD US 75 HIGHWAY SOUTH OF
            CARBONDALE

&&

HENNECKE

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