Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Topeka, KS

759 
WGUS73 KTOP 240354
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1054 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KSC031-111-127-139-197-240730-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-150524T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-MORRIS-LYON-COFFEY-WABAUNSEE-
1054 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN WABAUNSEE...NORTHERN COFFEY...LYON...EASTERN MORRIS AND
OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 1040 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH 
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. THE FLASH FLOODING WAS PARTICULARLY 
WIDESPREAD IN LYON...OSAGE...AND COFFEY COUNTIES WHERE NUMEROUS 
ROADS HAD BEEN CLOSED. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MAY WORSEN THE FLOODING SITUATION.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTA VISTA...ESKRIDGE...HARVEYVILLE...COUNCIL GROVE...DUNLAP...
BURLINGAME...CARBONDALE...LYNDON...MELVERN...OLIVET...OSAGE CITY...
OVERBROOK...QUENEMO...SCRANTON...ADMIRE...ALLEN...AMERICUS...
BUSHONG...EMPORIA...HARTFORD...NEOSHO RAPIDS...OLPE...READING...BETO 
JUNCTION...LEBO...AND WAVERLY.

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND 165.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 128 AND 167.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY ROADS AND FARMLANDS
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9636 3852 9636 3852 9658 3887 9652
      3889 9608 3887 9594 3887 9550 3838 9551
      3816 9596

$$

BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
759 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short term trends and some of the latest model runs show back edge
of precipitation likely staying out of north central KS for
awhile, so have decreased POPs in that area. Thunder will also be
most likely isolated, and mostly concentrated in the far east.
There will be a sustained period of at least moderate rain in the
east, mainly east of a line from Herington to Manhattan to
Marysville. Precipitation efficiency is high, and rainfall rates
up to an inch an hour have been observed from some of the heavier
cores. Another shortwave appears to be enhancing convection in
west TX and that could come up later tonight with another bout of
moderate to heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Flooding concerns remain front and center for the next 36 hours.
Although mesoscale influences will dictate who receives the
greatest amounts of rainfall it still appears that areas roughly
along and southeast of a Emporia to Topeka line will see
widespread 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible
tonight through Sunday as moisture transport is maximized tonight
throughout the area within a environment characterized by PWATs of
1.5 to 1.75". 850mb winds of 40-50kts will be rather uniform
across the region with no obvious signs of a boundary at this time
however there are signals that a weak wave/meso element across OK
could enhance convection and rainfall rates along/east of the
turnpike tonight. The more obvious waves will arrive Sunday which
should act to back winds and support another round of heavy rains
across the eastern third of the area or roughly along and east of
highway 75. MUCAPE is fcst to remain modest AOB 500j/kg tonight however
given warm rain process and moisture transport rain will still be
locally heavy with training expected.

Have expanded the flood watch area to include Geary, Riley,
Pottawatomie and Nemaha counties given ongoing convection and
continued trend of short range models to shift axis of heavy rains
a bit further NW.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Have increased precip chances/amounts somewhat Sunday evening with
somewhat slower trend of ECMWF and GFS Ensembles, though at this
point amounts look low, but by this time small amounts could keep
flooding going and keeping the Watch through Sunday night. Differences in
the handling of the stronger/larger scale upper waves continue in
the latest models. The strongest feature still remains well south of
the area as it rotates northeast, with more spread in the weaker
wave passing through Nebraska Memorial Day and Monday night. Better
both lower and upper level forcing appears to stay to the northwest,
but in the weak overall flow and mean trough axis in place, will
keep chance PoPs going. Instability continues to look rather
impressive by mid afternoon with modest shear, giving rise to at
least some severe weather potential if storms can form.

Precip chances continue for much of the remainder of the week
continues. A weak surface trough sags in from the northwest for at
least small thunder chances again Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Though likely weak, isentropic upglide develops behind the
boundary  Wednesday into Wednesday night before the next slow moving
longwave trough approaches from the west. Moisture turn to the west
keeps chances going Thursday night with trough nearing and some
potential for a front to sag in around Friday night. Have the
highest chances in the latter periods with better overall forcing.
Overall weak flow should keep severe weather potential
climatologically low, and if repeated convection does occur the main
focus could again be flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 713 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Periods of rain, occasionally moderate to heavy will continue at
TOP and FOE throughout the night. This should keep things in the
MVFR range with IFR visibilities in heavier rain. At MHK, precip
should be lighter for the most part and it will likely be VFR
until low-level stratus comes in later tonight. MHK could also
have gusty east winds on the west side of precip area. On Sunday,
there may be a break late morning to mid afternoon before another
chance of rain and thunderstorms come in later in the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

UPDATE...GDP
SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...GDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
415 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-242115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
415 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER PERSISTENT AND PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HERINGTON TO
MANHATTAN TO SENECA...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
FORECAST TO BE COMMON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OF MEMORIAL DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
530 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E DOVER               38.96N 95.90W
05/23/2015  M1.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL IN 15 MINUTES

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     FLOOD            2 SE COUNCIL GROVE      38.64N 96.47W
05/23/2015                   MORRIS             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ON DUNLAP ROAD AT BIG JOHN
            CREEK. OTHER MINOR FLOODING NOTED THROUGHOUT MORRIS
            COUNTY.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KSZ021-022-035-036-240100-
CLAY-DICKINSON-GEARY-RILEY-
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RILEY...EASTERN CLAY...
NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON AND GEARY COUNTIES...

THROUGH 800 PM CDT...STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINFALL
WILL GUST UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST. SOME AREAS
THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE JUNCTION CITY...MANHATTAN...RANDOLPH...
CHAPMAN....MILFORD...MILFORD LAKE...AND TUTTLE CREEK LAKE. TRAINED
WEATHER SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN CLAY
CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE YOU MAY HEAR NO THUNDER AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO
RAIN WITH THESE STRONG WINDS.

MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 283 AND 311 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 9659 3953 9663 3948 9667 3946 9671
      3942 9673 3933 9667 3932 9665 3929 9664
      3925 9659 3925 9657 3924 9659 3924 9657
      3893 9659 3887 9695 3905 9720 3941 9718
      3957 9708 3957 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 258DEG 14KT 3951 9688 3901 9688

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
758 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLOOD            2 SW MELVERN            38.49N 95.66W
05/23/2015                   OSAGE              KS   PUBLIC

            FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSING ON CALIFORNIA ROAD.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
817 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

KSZ010-011-023-240200-
MARSHALL-NEMAHA-POTTAWATOMIE-
817 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POTTAWATOMIE...WESTERN NEMAHA AND
MARSHALL COUNTIES...

THROUGH 900 PM CDT...STRONG WINDS ON THE WEST EDGE OF AN AREA OF
RAIN WILL GUST UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SOME AREAS
THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE SENECA...WESTMORELAND...VERMILLION...
SUMMERFIELD...LILLIS...WHEATON AND MARYSVILLE. IT IS POSSIBLE YOU
MAY HEAR NO THUNDER AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WITH THESE STRONG
WINDS.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9593 3961 9601 3936 9615 3918 9640
      3919 9644 3929 9664 3932 9664 3933 9667
      3942 9673 3946 9671 3948 9667 3953 9663
      3954 9660 3956 9658 4000 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 172DEG 17KT 3966 9630

BARJENBRUCH