Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

REGIONAL ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS MUCH OF KS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE, WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF GULF
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS CO INTO NE.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFT NORTH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS, EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HEAT INDICES ARE MAXING OUT BETWEEN 110 AND
115 DEGREES.

RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION APPEARS TO
HAVE WASHED OUT OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL KS WITH VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
ACCAS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS
MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER 90S WHICH LEAVES SOME CONCERN FOR ISO
STORMS TO DEVELOP, HOWEVER THERE IS NO REAL STRONG FORCING IN PLACE
TO KICKOFF CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS LOW FOR STORMS IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY
IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS HOLDING OFF ISO/SCATTERED CONVECTION UNTIL
AFTER THE 6 TO 7 PM TIME FRAME. BY THIS TIME EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR
25 KTS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL CAUSE ANY STORM THAT
FORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

ON SATURDAY, LINGERING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THE LLJ WANES AND TEMPORARY CLEARING
OCCURS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY WARM FROM
THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON TRANSLATE TO HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100 TO 105 RANGE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EXISTENCE
OF CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP LEAD TO HOLDING OFF HEADLINES
FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS
AND NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IF CLEARING OCCURS AND PEAK HEATING IS MAXIMIZED, HIGH
INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR MAY RESULT IN STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A LOWER RISK FOR
LARGER HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONVECTION LIKELY ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND OUT ON THE HIGH PLAINS. AS LLJ VEERS ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WOULD ANTICIPATE THIS TO SUSTAIN SOME OF THE
CONVECTION...DIMINISHING IN TIME WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND
HAVE FORECAST WORDED AS SUCH. HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MOVE EAST WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT POTENTIAL...BUT
PATTERN WOULD INDICATE CLEARING BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE AND A
BOOST BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
LOWER DEWPOINTS ALSO MIX EASTWARD AND ARE FORECAST IN UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S...AND SUSPECT CURRENT FORECAST IS EVEN A LITTLE TOO HIGH.
HEAT INDICES ARE JUST NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT COULD BE BELOW
DEPENDING ON HOW MESOSCALE AND MIXING PAN OUT. STRONGER SHORTWAVE
PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN ON MONDAY AND AIDS IN
REAMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. COULD GET CLIPPED TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WITH A FEW STORMS BUT OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER DAY AS AGAIN LOWER DEWPOINTS MIX OUT. FORECAST IS
NEAR CRITERIA AGAIN...BUT MAY BE OVERDONE ESPECIALLY IF MID 60S
DEWPOINTS MAKE IT FARTHER EAST.

AS NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE KS/NE
BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS PARKS THE MID LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WOULD LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOME RELIEF FINALLY IN STORE IN THE
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AS STRONG NORTHERN TROF MOVES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AND DIMINISH. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 80S
FOR WEDNESDAY AND RISE TO MIDDLE UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT STILL CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THIS CURRENT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
WITH TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS AS SHORT TERM
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND COVERAGE. STORMS FIRING IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS COULD POSSIBLY MAKE IT TO MHK TERMINAL AFTER 04Z
AND HAVE ADDED VCTS AND LEFT OUT OF TOP AND FOE FOR NOW.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
905 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-260215-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
905 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL AROUND AN INCH AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 102 TO 108 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS MAY CATCH A BREAK FROM THE HEAT WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
856 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

KSZ010-250230-
MARSHALL-
856 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY
UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 856 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
OKETO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUMMERFIELD AND OKETO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3993 9629 3984 9658 4000 9668 4000 9634
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 330DEG 14KT 4000 9656

HENNECKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
929 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

KSZ010-250300-
MARSHALL-
929 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 928 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
OKETO...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARYSVILLE AND OKETO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 9636 3985 9667 4000 9667 4000 9641
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 346DEG 8KT 3994 9657

HENNECKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1003 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE OKETO             39.95N 96.56W
07/24/2015                   MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER FLOWING OVER CHEROKEE ROAD ABOUT 6 INCHES DEEP.

&&

JW