Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Great Falls, MT

818 
WWUS55 KTFX 050337
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
937 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MTC005-041-050400-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-150705T0400Z/
HILL MT-BLAINE MT-
937 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
FOR NORTHERN HILL AND NORTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTIES...

AT 936 PM MDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 26 MILES NORTHWEST OF TURNER TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GILDFORD...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...65 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. AT 905 PM WIND GUST OF 60 MPH WAS REPORTED 
20 MILES NORTH OF RUDYARD.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAVRE...GILDFORD...WEST HAVRE...BEAVER CREEK...SADDLE BUTTE...HAVRE
NORTH...HERRON...HINGHAM...KREMLIN AND RUDYARD.

THOSE ATTENDING 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES IN THE HAVRE AREA ARE IN THE 
PATH OF THESE STORMS AND SHOULD PREPARE FOR IMMINENT DANGEROUS 
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEEK SHELTER NOW!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4837 10993 4863 11075 4900 11006 4900 10864
TIME...MOT...LOC 0336Z 284DEG 49KT 4905 10890 4853 11014 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MLV

932 
WWUS55 KTFX 050351
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
951 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MTC005-041-050400-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-150705T0400Z/
HILL MT-BLAINE MT-
951 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN HILL AND NORTHWESTERN
BLAINE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM MDT...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN HILL COUNTY AND SOUTHERN BLAINE COUNTY UNTIL 1030 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 4837 10993 4863 11075 4900 11006 4900 10864
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 272DEG 55KT 4905 10890 4853 11014 

$$

MLV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
705 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS OF
7PM MDT. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 9PM
AND THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL MONTANA ALONG A LINE FROM GREAT FALLS
TO LEWISTOWN BETWEEN 11PM MDT AND 1AM MDT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE HELENA VALLEY AFTER 2AM MDT AND THE BOZEMAN AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE HI-LINE AND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AS OF 7PM MDT. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z FOR CENTRAL MONTANA BASED ON THE
SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THOUGH WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT AS OF 7PM MDT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 10Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT SUN MORNING. A SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SMOKE
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION ON SUNDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AND MAKING MOUNTAINS/PASSES OBSCURED AT TIMES. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AT 3 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL NORTH
OF CALGARY...THUS THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE CUT BANK AREA AFTER 7 PM AND IN THE GREAT FALLS AREA AFTER 10
PM. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL...THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH...BUT AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20 RAINFALL LOOKS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...JUST A PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON MONDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS HAPPENING...AS WARMER
AIR TRIES TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
BRING SCATTERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY INTO MONTANA BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ON THE 04/00Z RUNS THAN
THEY WERE ON THE 03/00Z MODEL RUNS, THIS CURRENT SOLUTION IS ABOUT
24 HOURS LATER THAN THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ON THE 03/00Z
RUNS. THIS COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE FACT THAT THE 03/00Z MODELS MAY
HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. REGARDLESS, AS THE FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY, THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THEN, AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING TO THE EAST, THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS, HAVE
KEPT CHANCES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THIS SHIFT IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  64  43  77 /  60  40   0   0
CTB  50  63  41  75 /  60  40   0   0
HLN  62  68  51  83 /  20  30  10   0
BZN  54  72  48  79 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  48  69  40  73 /  20  40  40  10
DLN  58  76  50  80 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  68  45  75 /  60  40   0   0
LWT  55  62  46  74 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
849 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MTZ011-045-050330-
HILL-LIBERTY-
849 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LIBERTY...NORTHERN HILL
AND EASTERN TOOLE COUNTIES...

AT 848 PM MDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 27 MILES NORTH OF GILDFORD TO 11 MILES NORTH OF
LOTHAIR...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHESTER...GILDFORD...INVERNESS...JOPLIN...LOTHAIR...HINGHAM AND
RUDYARD.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 2 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 309 AND 354.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4882 10971 4825 11100 4850 11128 4887 11128
      4900 11095 4900 11013
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 302DEG 33KT 4895 11046 4863 11120

MLV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
911 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MTZ010-044-045-050400-
TOOLE-EASTERN GLACIER-LIBERTY-
911 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY...NORTHERN
TOOLE AND NORTHEASTERN GLACIER COUNTIES...

AT 909 PM MDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SUNBURST...OR 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF CUT BANK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUNBURST...FERDIG...WHITLASH AND OILMONT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 15 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 380 AND 397.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4897 11102 4851 11133 4892 11224 4899 11218
      4900 11112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 293DEG 43KT 4903 11202

COULSTON