High Wind Watch 3, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
355 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...An upper ridge centered over the Rockies
today will provide dry conditions. A lee side surface trof has
tightened the gradient along the Rocky Mountain Front and winds
have increased and become gusty. The strongest winds will occur
along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and a high wind warning
has been hoisted for that area through the morning. It will also
be breezy over the plains. Weak shortwave energy will cross the
area tonight embedded within the northwest flow aloft. This
feature may bring light snow showers to the Rockies and clouds to
the plains. The pattern changes little on Friday. Additional
shortwave energy will bring isolated snow showers to the Rockies
as well as the mountains of southwest Montana while the plains
remain dry. Stronger shortwave energy will move rapidly across the
area on Saturday. Snow levels will be high enough Saturday to keep
the precipitation as scattered rain showers at the lower
elevations with snow in the mountains. Because this feature moves
through so quickly, precipitation accumulations will not be
significant. Surface pressure gradients remain tight along the
Rocky Mountain Front Saturday and a high wind watch has been
issued through Saturday evening. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages through the period.

Saturday Night through Thursday...A trough moves across Central
Montana and the Continental Divide during Saturday. Precipitation
chances climb across Central Montana but the system moves through
fairly quickly suggesting most places will not see much in quantity.
Precipitation looks to be rain at lower elevations and snow in the
mountains. Summer-like high pressure over the west coast builds
north late Sunday helping push most moisture out of the region for
Monday and Tuesday. The pattern holds into Wednesday as moisture
from a low pressure system in Mexico moves north through the Western
U.S. and into Southwest Montana Wednesday afternoon. Most moisture
from this system exits the region Thursday. West southwest winds
across much of the region look to remain in the 10 to 20 MPH range
throughout the period. High temperatures remain well above seasonal
averages with some locations in the low 50s this coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
Moist northwest flow aloft will shift westerly with increasing high
clouds overnight and mid-level clouds by tomorrow afternoon.
Westerly winds will also increase and become gusty along the Rocky
Mountain Front tonight and spread into the plains Thursday. Wind
gusts of 35 to 45 kts are possible at KCTB and KGTF tomorrow
afternoon with higher gusts over the Rocky Mountain Front. As an
upper-level shortwave approaches Thursday evening, mountains will
become obscured and showers will be possible in higher terrain along
the Continental Divide. Have added VCSH to KHLN after 00z Friday.
Increased mountain wave activity is also possible on Thursday,
however VFR conditions will prevail at all sites over the next 24
hours. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  30  43  37 /   0  10   0  20
CTB  42  26  42  35 /   0  10   0  10
HLN  36  22  40  27 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  34  19  39  22 /   0  10  10  20
WEY  27   6  32  10 /   0  10  10  30
DLN  38  21  44  26 /   0  10   0  10
HVR  40  25  42  33 /   0  10   0  10
LWT  44  25  44  31 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

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