High Wind Watch 15, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1153 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015

.UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT
THIS MORNING AS LATEST MOISTURE PLUME MOVES ALONG THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE WA/OR/ID
BORDER. A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE BIG BELT MTNS
AND THE VARIOUS MTN RANGES IN MADISON/GALLATIN COUNTIES AS THE
PLUME CROSSES THOSE AREAS THIS MORNING BUT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY JUST BE A TRACE. THE CLOUD COVER HEADS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTN. CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY
STILL LOOKS GOOD. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1753Z.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. MARTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015/

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...SUPPORTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
RAISES THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE
FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA. FOR MONTANA...THIS MEANS INCREASING WINDS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAK WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION. THE FIRST ROUND OF HIGH WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, LOCALIZED TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE
STRENGTHENING AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
FRONT. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT,
THEN INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP, HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND WHETHER WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 58 MPH HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES TURN AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER ON
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TAPER AROUND
SUNSET SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS FORECASTED TO SET UP OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TO BEGIN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEN BOTH THE GFS
AND EC MODEL CONTINUE THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...THE GFS/EC DIVERGE...AND I AM LEANING
TOWARDS THE EC MODEL...WHICH BUILDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES DO
COOL TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN
REBOUND A TOUCH FOR FRIDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  55  82  49 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  80  51  75  49 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  81  49  81  49 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  78  44  82  47 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  65  33  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  78  47  79  49 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  81  53  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  81  53  83  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MTZ009-010-048.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS