Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
450 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.DISCUSSION...
BASED IN PART ON STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR HILL AND BLAINE AND FERGUS AND JUDITH BASIN
AND CHOUTEAU COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER STORMS IN THE AREA
OF THE WATCH. ALSO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER WITH INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING VERY SLOWLY. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH IN THE AREA OF THE BORDER. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2250Z.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MONTANA...WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALONG THE MT/ID BORDER. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO AFFECT KBZN FOR A SHORT TIME FRIDAY EVENING
WITH A REDUCTION TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS OF A MORE
ISOLATED...BUT POTENTIALLY STRONGER NATURE ARE NEAR
KHLN...KLWT...AND KBZN. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BEFORE
06/0600 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR
THE HIGHLIGHTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. NUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 249 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS ANOTHER
PLUME OF MOISTURE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
ON A DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS
HAVE DECREASED SINCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
REACHING THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA.
ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED AND
PRODUCED HAIL OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING AS THEY DRIFT EASTWARD
INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, HIGHER
DEWPOINTS, AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW. HAZARDS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL INCLUDE TORRENTIAL RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING SMALL HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN MONTANA FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...YIELDING ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NUTTER

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...EXPECT ONE OF THE
WARMEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR IN MANY AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT...RESULTING IN A
BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...THE GFS/EC DIFFER IN HOW MUCH THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
THE EC TRIES TO GO WITH A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW...WHILE THE GFS
WANTS TO REBUILD THE RIDGE...AND MAINTAIN THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...LEANED TOWARDS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO.
ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MANY AREAS. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH JUST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  75  51  81 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  44  76  48  81 /  20   0   0   0
HLN  52  78  53  83 /  40  10  10   0
BZN  48  73  47  76 /  50  20  10   0
WEY  39  65  40  70 /  60  40  40   0
DLN  48  71  48  74 /  70  30  20   0
HVR  50  79  51  83 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  51  72  50  77 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
425 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

MTZ050-052315-
JUDITH BASIN-
425 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN JUDITH BASIN COUNTY...

AT 423 PM MDT...A THUNDERSTORM WAS 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOBSON...OR
21 MILES SOUTH OF STANFORD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH HAIL UP TO PEA-
SIZE. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4677 11015 4695 11016 4699 10985 4674 10985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 268DEG 8KT 4687 11005

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
500 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

MTZ012-050-054-052330-
MEAGHER-CASCADE-JUDITH BASIN-
500 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN JUDITH BASIN...
CENTRAL MEAGHER AND SOUTHEASTERN CASCADE COUNTIES...

AT 456 PM MDT...A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WERE LOCATED OVER
NORTHEAST MEAGHER COUNTY AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONGEST
STORM WAS AS 15 MILES NORTH OF WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS WHILE THE OTHER
STORM WAS 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
MEAGHER... SOUTHEASTERN CASCADE AND SOUTHWESTERN JUDITH BASIN
COUNTIES.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 49 AND 54.
 HIGHWAY 89 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND 27.

LAT...LON 4676 11117 4697 11105 4677 11056 4655 11072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 251DEG 18KT 4675 11080

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
547 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HAIL             11 E TOWNSEND           46.33N 111.28W
06/05/2015  E0.70 INCH       BROADWATER         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME-SIZE HAIL FALLING

&&

MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
553 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

MTZ012-050-053>055-060045-
MEAGHER-BROADWATER-CASCADE-GALLATIN-JUDITH BASIN-
553 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN JUDITH
BASIN...CENTRAL BROADWATER...NORTH CENTRAL GALLATIN...CENTRAL
MEAGHER AND SOUTHEASTERN CASCADE COUNTIES...

AT 549 PM MDT...A NEARLY STATIONARY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
7 MILES EAST OF TOSTON.

HEAVY RAIN UP TO A HALF-INCH IN AN HOUR ALONG WITH HAIL UP TO ONE-
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

 LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TOWNSEND...WHITE SULPHUR
SPRINGS...TOSTON...MAUDLOW AND RADERSBURG.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1  AND 56...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
78 AND 90.
 HIGHWAY 89 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 28...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
55 AND 57.

LAT...LON 4678 11050 4606 11117 4620 11164 4692 11097
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 003DEG 28KT 4679 11072 4617 11130

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