Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR COLUMN...WITH MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. IN FACT BELOW THE 400MB
LEVEL WE FIND A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF.

FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE MOIST BELOW THE H5 LEVEL...AND THEN
DRIES OUT CONTINUING UPWARD. HOWEVER...JUDGING BY EXPERIENCE...
THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING FROM A CONVECTIVE
PERSPECTIVE...SOME OF THE VARIABLE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THAT HAVE
ENHANCED THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE STILL
BEING SAMPLED THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHERS ARE NOT. THE H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE H5 LEVEL ARE BETWEEN -8C TO -10C. THESE
VALUES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR JULY AND HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAPSE
RATES BELOW H5 ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WHICH MIGHT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ALSO
EVALUATING THE VARIOUS BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES...SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN FORECAST CAPE WITHIN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. IN THE END...WOULD SAY THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE BY CLIMO FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE DUE TO THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVE THE
RIGHT UPDRAFT...A LITTLE ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE NON-
HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE CAN OVERWHELM ANY NEGATIVES IN
THE COLUMN. SO...SHOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT AS ALWAYS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND TAKE IT
ONE STORM AT A TIME.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIES RIGHT
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN SINCE THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN FALL ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEFORE THEN...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTION OF TAMPA BAY AND THE NATURE COAST. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE VERY SLOW MOVING ONCE THEY
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR AN INLAND
PROGAGATION TO THE STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.

HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THERE IS A TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TO TRY AND BRING CONVECTION BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH NW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOT COMPLETELY
READY TO COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID EVENING FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND VCTS
IN THE ASSOCIATED TAFS. WILL MONITOR FUTURE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ONCE THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
DEVELOP AND ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE SIMULATIONS.

EVENING STORMS SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY 03-04Z...FOLLOWED BY A
DRY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAND MASS. LATE TONIGHT AS THE LAND
BREEZE BECOMES MORE DEFINED...A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE
NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR THE 4TH...THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE
BROAD...RESULTING IN A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
REGIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
GENERALLY MOIST FLOW REGIME...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HOSTILE
LAYERS IN THE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SCT-NMRS
STORMS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES. WITH TIME...SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND...SO THE LATER IN THE DAY WE
GO...THE MORE NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WESTERLY FLOW...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE WEST FROM INLAND CONVECTION
WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPOSITION...AND COULD CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND
OF STORMS BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE EVENING. SUCH
IS SUMMER CONVECTION IN FLORIDA. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OFTEN GIVES
A GOOD FIRST GUESS AS TO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE...BUT "UNEXPECTED" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON A GIVEN DAY CAN
QUICKLY RUIN A WELL THOUGHT OUT FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A SPLIT STREAM PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A LARGE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WEAK TROUGHING CROSSING INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WILL MORE OR LESS HOLD IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...FAVORING A SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY MIDWEEK...A TUTT LOW WILL BE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL CAUSE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DROP...WITH 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL MODERATE AGAIN BY FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY...WITH STORMS
PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN
KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. STORMS DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LOW OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH BOATERS WILL NEED
TO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE STORMS MIGRATING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

FOG IMPACT...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  91 /  20  40  30  60
FMY  76  94  76  93 /  30  60  30  40
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  20  60  50  60
SRQ  77  91  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
BKV  74  94  73  92 /  20  40  30  60
SPG  80  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...FLEMING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1008 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-041415-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
1008 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...
AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES. ADDITIONALLY...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SUPPORT AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT OF UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...
AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

NOAH/FLEMING

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