Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
240 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TOMORROW)...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MEANDER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE RIDGING EXTENDS
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. STRONG MID LEVEL
RIDGING (H5 ~589-591 DAM)IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE
INTO THE WEEKEND HELPING TO KEEP SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z TBW AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE PENINSULA THROUGH TOMORROW
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT SE TO E PUSH WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY BUT THE FLOW IS EXPECTED WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TOMORROW ENABLING A BETTER DEVELOP OF THE WEST COAST
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A SLUG A DRY AIR OFF
THE SURFACE. MOIST CONDITIONS EXTEND INTO THE UPPER LEVELS WITH
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL AIR. GIVEN THIS
SET UP AFTERNOON STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO FAVOR COASTAL AREAS WEST OF I 75 AND SOUTH OF
THE NATURE COAST.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIDGING FROM OVER
THE ATLANTIC WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP A GENERALLY SE FLOW IN PLACE WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. SOME
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S EACH DAY...LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...RADAR IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECTING VCTS AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SRQ NORTHWARD BUT EAST WINDS UPSTREAM CONTINUE TO
SHOW A GOOD PUSH SO MAY AMD WINDS FOR PIE AND SRQ THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR TO GENERALLY PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND STRETCHES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME BRIEF AND MINOR NOCTURNAL
SURGES EACH MORNING BEFORE SUN RISE. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE EXPECTED SHIFT OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS DURING THE EVEN HOURS AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TRANSITION OFF SHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO RED FLAG CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORMS/LIGHTNING POTENTIAL EACH
AFTERNOON (FAVORING COASTAL AREAS) AND HIGH DISPERSIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON (MAINLY FAVORING INTERIOR LOCATIONS FROM
HILLSBOROUGH/POLK NORTHWARD).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  76  92 /  10  60  50  30
FMY  75  92  74  92 /  10  50  60  60
GIF  75  93  75  93 /   0  30  20  20
SRQ  76  91  74  90 /  20  60  60  40
BKV  73  93  72  93 /  20  40  40  20
SPG  78  92  77  91 /  20  50  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT/LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
442 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-130845-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
442 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CARLISLE

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