Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
311 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF OF MEXICO
WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL WEAKEN A
BIT AS A S/W DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR
THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. W/V IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF MID
LEVEL DRY AIR EAST OF FLORIDA WHICH IS SLOWLY ADVECTING WEST
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
FROM THE U/L RIDGE WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WILL KEEP LOW POPS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW END SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL ALSO AID IN ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH DRIER IN PLACE OVER THE PENINSULA. THAT
BEING SAID...LOOKS DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS
PWAT VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE. MOISTURE RETURN
BEGINS ON FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT LOW END POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST AREAS WILL STILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES WILL HELP INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SOME WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS LATE IN THE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING. WEAKER FLOW LIKELY SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SEABREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SLIGHTLY LOWERING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE GULF COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO THE
SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION... SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MAY IMPACT TPA/PIE/SRQ/FMY/RSW WITH MVFR CIGS AND
IFR VSBYS. STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40
KNOTS. THUNDESTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS BETWEEN 00-02Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WINDS OF OVER 34 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.
EVENING EASTERLY SURGE OF WIND EACH NIGHT WILL ALSO CREATE WINDS
OF EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  92  72  91 /  30  30  20  10
FMY  75  93  70  91 /  30  30  20  10
GIF  75  92  70  90 /  10  20   0  10
SRQ  75  91  71  89 /  40  30  20  10
BKV  73  92  68  90 /  30  30  20  10
SPG  78  90  74  89 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-270200-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
525 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES
WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS THE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SOME DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT WILL RETURN THIS
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SETUP A STEADY
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRC

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