Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
344 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
WITH A SURFACE COOL FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH/NORTH FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING TO
BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.7 INCHES. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZES/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
GULF AND WIND DOWN THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOP...BUT WITH FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS. ALSO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE HERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
NO DRASTIC CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE WEATHER IN THE MID AND LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO DOMINATE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WITH AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PRESENT EACH DAY...
SCATTERED AFTN AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED COURTESY OF DIURNAL SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE FLOW
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THEY WILL REMAIN WARM...
GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR MID-MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MORE MVFR CEILINGS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS
UNDERWAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A SHIFT TO ONSHORE WITH
THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SETTING UP AN INCREASED
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH WINDS REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION...
POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH EACH
AFTERNOON TO SEE A SEA BREEZE...BUT IT WILL BE DELAYED AND NOT AS
STRONG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES WEST OUT INTO THE GULF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT AND WINDS AND ERC
VALUES CONTINUE BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  90  74  90 /  40  40  30  30
FMY  71  93  72  92 /  30  30  20  20
GIF  72  92  72  90 /  20  40  20  20
SRQ  71  90  72  89 /  50  40  30  20
BKV  69  92  69  91 /  30  50  30  30
SPG  76  90  76  89 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
514 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-130000-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
514 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

HUBBARD

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