River Flood Warning 40, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
835 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
OVERNIGHT FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THOUGH MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OF THE SHOWER VARIETY...A STRAY STORM OR TWO
MAY OCCUR. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES...AND WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT VICINITY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A HUMID AND CLOUDY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. OPTED TO GO WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH PATCHY/INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS DUE
TO SHRA COULD OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE. KFMY AND KRSW WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A GREATER PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS DUE TO SHRA AND LOW CIGS.
BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z WED...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND
FOG MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KTPA/KPIE...KLAL AND KPGD. FOR
THIS...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID WED MORNING...WITH
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING FROM KSRQ SOUTH BY 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL EXIT THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL BE REINFORCED AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS...THOUGH SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  88  76  88 /  20  20  20  30
FMY  77  89  77  89 /  30  30  20  40
GIF  75  89  74  89 /  20  20  10  30
SRQ  78  87  77  87 /  20  20  20  30
BKV  74  88  72  89 /  20  20  20  30
SPG  78  87  78  86 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
DECISION SUPPORT...74/WYNN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
549 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-301000-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
549 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...AND FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

HUBBARD