River Flood Warning 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

602 
WGUS82 KTBW 270250
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1050 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...A river Flood Warning continues for...the Anclote River at Elfers and 
the Little Manatee River at Wimauma...

.Heavy rains over the past 3 days has caused a rise in water levels 
along the Anclote and Little Manatee Rivers. With continued rainfall and runoff 
over the coming days...the waters are expected to continue rising with the Anclote 
River cresting tomorrow morning and the Little Manatee River cresting on Tuesday
morning. We will closely monitor these rivers over the coming days for any 
further increase in water levels. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas...

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC101-271550-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150728T1200Z/
/ELFF1.2.ER.150725T1413Z.150727T1200Z.150728T0600Z.NO/
1050 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  The Anclote River At Elfers
* Until Tuesday morning
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 23.1 feet
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 23.7 feet by tomorrow morning. The 
  river is expected to fall below flood stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Five homes in Anclote River Estates flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9 feet on Apr 2 
  2011.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon    Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri

Anclote River
 Elfers       20 23.1  Sun 10 PM  23.7   19.1   18.6   18.5   17.2


&&


LAT...LON 2820 8263 2819 8271 2817 8271 2817 8275
 2823 8272 2824 8263                  



$$

FLC057-271550-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0002.150727T1000Z-150730T0000Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.150727T1000Z.150728T0600Z.150729T1800Z.NO/
1050 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday evening...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* From tomorrow morning through Wednesday evening
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 10.1 feet
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and 
  continue to rise to near 12.1 feet by early Tuesday morning.the river is 
  expected to fall below flood stage by Wednesday early afternoon.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...The canoe rental area floods.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.4 feet on Sep 17 
  2013.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon    Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri

Little Manatee
 Wimauma      11 10.1  Sun 10 PM  11.2   12.0   11.2   10.3    9.4


&&


LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231




$$

464 
WGUS82 KTBW 271040
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
640 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...A river Flood Warning continues for the Anclote River at Elfers and
the Little Manatee River at Wimauma...

.Heavy rain the past 3 days has caused the Anclote river to rise above
flood stage...and will cause the Little Manatee River to rise above flood
stage tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas...

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC101-281040-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150730T2015Z/
/ELFF1.2.ER.150725T1413Z.150727T0830Z.150730T1415Z.NO/
640 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues
for
  The Anclote River At Elfers
* Until Thursday afternoon
* At 6 AM Monday the stage was 23.5 feet
* Flood stage is 20 feet
* The river will crest at 23.6 feet early this morning. The river is
  expected to fall below flood stage Thursday morning.
* Impact...at 24 feet...Five homes in Anclote River Estates flood.
* Impact...at 23 feet...Evacuation recommended for residents of Anclote River
  Estates.  Over 300 homes in the area may need to be evacuated.
* Impact...at 22 feet...There is water over the roadway along the Elfers 
  Parkway.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9 feet on Apr 2 
  2011.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Anclote River
 Elfers       20  23.5  Mon 06 AM  21.7   21.5   20.3   17.5    15.9


&&


LAT...LON 2820 8263 2819 8271 2817 8271 2817 8275
 2823 8272 2824 8263                  



$$

FLC057-281040-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.150728T0600Z.150731T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
640 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* From after midnight tonight until further notice
* At 6 AM Monday the stage was 10.3 feet
* Flood stage is 11 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and continue to 
  rise to near 12.1 feet by early Friday morning.
* Impact...at 13 feet...The canoe rental area floods.
* Impact...at 11 feet...The river overflows its banks.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.4 feet on Sep 17 
  2013.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Little Manatee
 Wimauma      11  10.3  Mon 06 AM  11.1   11.5   11.8   12.1    MSG


&&


LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231




$$

959 
WGUS82 KTBW 271457
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1057 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...A river Flood Warning continues for...The Anclote River At
Elfers...The Little Manatee River At Wimauma...The Myakka River At
Myakka River State Park...

.Several days of heavy rain have led to rising waters on area
rivers. Waters have reached...or are forecast to reach flood stage
on several area rivers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas...

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC101-281457-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150730T1330Z/
/ELFF1.2.ER.150725T1413Z.150727T0830Z.150730T0730Z.NO/
1057 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday morning...The Flood
Warning continues for
  The Anclote River At Elfers
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 10 AM Monday the stage was 23.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by Thursday
morning.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Five homes in Anclote River Estates
flood.
* Impact...at 23.0 feet...Evacuation recommended for residents of
Anclote River Estates.  Over 300 homes in the area may need to be
evacuated.
* Impact...at 22.0 feet...There is water over the roadway along
the Elfers Parkway.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9
feet on Apr 2 2011.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri   
Sat

Anclote River
 Elfers       20  23.3  Mon 10 AM  21.5   21.1   19.7   17.4  
15.9


&&


LAT...LON 2820 8263 2819 8271 2817 8271 2817 8275
 2823 8272 2824 8263                  



$$

FLC057-281457-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.150727T2248Z.150729T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1057 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for The Little Manatee River At
Wimauma
* From this evening through further notice.
* At 10 AM Monday the stage was 10.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue
to rise to near 12.5 feet by Wednesday morning.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...The canoe rental area floods.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...The river overflows its banks.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.3
feet on Sep 26 2013.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri   
Sat

Little Manatee
 Wimauma      11  10.4  Mon 10 AM  11.9   12.5   12.3   12.3  
11.7


&&


LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231




$$

FLC115-281457-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.150727T1300Z.150728T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1057 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for The Myakka River At Myakka River
State Park
* Until further notice.
* At 10 AM Monday the stage was 7.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 7.4 feet by Wednesday
morning then begin falling.
* Impact...at 8.0 feet...The main road at Myakka State Park
floods.
* Impact...at 7.0 feet...Trails, picnic areas, and parking lots at
Myakka State Park flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 7.2
feet on Sep 9 2013.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri   
Sat

Myakka
 Myakka Rive   7   7.0  Mon 10 AM   7.3    7.4    7.4    7.4   
7.3


&&


LAT...LON 2726 8226 2715 8234 2715 8238 2731 8226




$$

708 
WGUS82 KTBW 272122
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
522 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...A river Flood Warning continues for...The Anclote River at Elfers...Cypress
Creek at Worthington Gardens...Little Manatee River at Wimauma and the Myakka
River at Myakka River State Park...

..Several days of heavy rain have led to rising waters on area rivers. Waters 
have reached...or are forecast to reach flood stage on several local rivers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas...

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC101-282122-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150731T1920Z/
/ELFF1.2.ER.150725T1413Z.150729T1800Z.150731T1320Z.NO/
522 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  The Anclote River At Elfers
* Until Friday afternoon
* At 4 PM Monday the stage was 22.9 feet
* Flood stage is 20 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 23.8 feet by Wednesday early afternoon.
  The river is expected to fall below flood stage late Friday morning.
* Impact...at 24 feet...Five homes in Anclote River Estates flood.
* Impact...at 23 feet...Evacuation recommended for residents of Anclote River
  Estates.  Over 300 homes in the area may need to be evacuated.
* Impact...at 22 feet...There is water over the roadway along the Elfers 
  Parkway.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9 feet on Apr 2 
  2011.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Anclote River
 Elfers       20  22.9  Mon 04 PM  22.8   23.7   23.0   20.2   17.5


&&


LAT...LON 2820 8263 2819 8271 2817 8271 2817 8275
 2823 8272 2824 8263                  



$$

FLC101-282122-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0004.150728T0600Z-150801T1200Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.150728T0600Z.150729T1800Z.150801T0600Z.NO/
522 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cypress Creek At Worthington Gardens
* From after midnight tomorrow through Saturday morning
* At 5 PM Monday the stage was 7.7 feet
* Flood stage is 8 feet
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and
  continue to rise to near 8.3 feet by early Thursday morning.the river is 
  expected to fall below flood stage by early Saturday morning.
* Impact...at 8 feet...Flooding begins at the recreation area on State Road 
  54.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 8.8 feet on Sep 30 
  2013.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Cypress Creek
 Worthington   8   7.7  Mon 05 PM   8.0    8.2    8.3    8.2    7.9


&&


LAT...LON 2819 8234 2814 8234 2814 8240 2819 8240




$$

FLC057-282122-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.150727T1840Z.150729T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
522 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* Until further notice
* At 5 PM Monday the stage was 11.2 feet
* Flood stage is 11 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 12.7 feet by Wednesday morning then 
  begin falling.
* Impact...at 13 feet...The canoe rental area floods.
* Impact...at 11 feet...The river overflows its banks.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.3 feet on Sep 26 
  2013.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Little Manatee
 Wimauma      11  11.2  Mon 05 PM  12.2   12.7   12.4   12.4   11.9


&&


LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231




$$

FLC115-282122-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.150727T1300Z.150728T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
522 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Myakka River At Myakka River State Park
* Until further notice
* At 4 PM Monday the stage was 7.2 feet
* Flood stage is 7 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 7.4 feet by Wednesday morning then 
  begin falling.
* Impact...at 8 feet...The main road at Myakka State Park floods.
* Impact...at 7 feet...Trails, picnic areas, and parking lots at Myakka State
  Park flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 7.2 feet on Sep 9 
  2013.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Myakka
 Myakka Rive   7   7.2  Mon 04 PM   7.3    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.3


&&


LAT...LON 2726 8226 2715 8234 2715 8238 2731 8226




$$

027 
WGUS82 KTBW 280228
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1028 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...A river Flood Warning continues for...The Anclote River at Elfers...Cypress
Creek at Worthington Gardens...Little Manatee River at Wimauma and the Myakka
River at Myakka River State Park...

..Scattered rain showers and storms combined with runoff from heavy rains over
the past several days continues to cause elevated water levels along local rivers. 
Widespread rainfall over the coming days will keep some rivers above flood stage 
throughout the week.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas...

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC101-281528-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150731T2034Z/
/ELFF1.2.ER.150725T1413Z.150727T0830Z.150731T1434Z.NO/
1028 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  The Anclote River At Elfers
* Until Friday afternoon
* At 9 PM Monday the stage was 22.5 feet
* Flood stage is 20 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 23.3 feet by Wednesday early afternoon.
  The river is expected to fall below flood stage late Friday morning.
* Impact...at 23 feet...Evacuation recommended for residents of Anclote River
  Estates.  Over 300 homes in the area may need to be evacuated.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9 feet on Apr 2 
  2011.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Anclote River
 Elfers       20 22.5  Mon 09 PM  22.1   23.2   22.5   20.3   17.6


&&


LAT...LON 2820 8263 2819 8271 2817 8271 2817 8275
 2823 8272 2824 8263                  



$$

FLC101-281528-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0004.150728T0408Z-150801T1800Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.150728T0408Z.150729T1200Z.150801T1200Z.NO/
1028 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues
for
  The Cypress Creek At Worthington Gardens
* From after midnight tomorrow through Saturday afternoon
* At 9 PM Monday the stage was 7.8 feet
* Flood stage is 8 feet
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and
  continue to rise to near 8.3 feet by Wednesday morning.the river is expected 
  to fall below flood stage by Saturday morning.
* Impact...at 8 feet...Flooding begins at the recreation area on State Road 
  54.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 8.8 feet on Sep 30 
  2013.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Cypress Creek
 Worthington   8  7.8  Mon 09 PM   8.1    8.3    8.3    8.2    8.0


&&


LAT...LON 2819 8234 2814 8234 2814 8240 2819 8240




$$

FLC057-281528-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.150727T1840Z.150801T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1028 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* Until further notice
* At 9 PM Monday the stage was 11.3 feet
* Flood stage is 11 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 12.4 feet by Friday evening then begin 
  falling.
* Impact...at 13 feet...The canoe rental area floods.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.3 feet on Sep 26 
  2013.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Little Manatee
 Wimauma      11 11.3  Mon 09 PM  11.8   12.2   12.1   12.3   12.2


&&


LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231




$$

FLC115-281528-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.150727T1300Z.150728T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1028 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Myakka River At Myakka River State Park
* Until further notice
* At 9 PM Monday the stage was 7.2 feet
* Flood stage is 7 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 7.4 feet by tomorrow early afternoon 
  then begin falling.
* Impact...at 7 feet...Trails, picnic areas, and parking lots at Myakka State
  Park flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 7.2 feet on Sep 9 
  2013.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Myakka
 Myakka Rive   7  7.2  Mon 09 PM   7.3    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.3


&&


LAT...LON 2726 8226 2715 8234 2715 8238 2731 8226




$$

759 
WGUS82 KTBW 281449
FLSTBW
Flood statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL
1049 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...A river Flood Warning continues for...The Little Manatee River at Wimauma...

...Scattered rain showers and storms combined with runoff from heavy rains over
the past several days continues to cause elevated water levels along local rivers. 
Widespread rainfall over the coming days will keep some rivers above flood stage 
throughout the week.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas...

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC057-291449-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.150727T1840Z.150731T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1049 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* Until further notice
* At 10 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.3 feet
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 13.7 feet by early Friday 
  morning then begin falling.
* Impact...at 14.5 feet...Flooding of several houses begins near 
  32nd and 33rd streets in Ruskin.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...The canoe rental area floods.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...The river overflows its banks.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.3 feet
  on Sep 26 2013.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun

Little Manatee
 Wimauma      11  11.3  Tue 10 AM  12.0   13.1   13.7   13.1   11.4


&&


LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231




$$

030 
WGUS42 KTBW 290140
FLWTBW
Bulletin - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
940 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...A river Flood Warning has been issued for...Cypress Creek At Worthington 
Gardens...The Little Manatee River At Wimauma...The Myakka River At Myakka
River State Park...and The Anclote River At Elfers.

.Several days of heavy rain has led to water levels rising to flood stage 
and above on these rivers. Flood levels are expected to continue for the 
next few days. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas...

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC101-291440-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.150728T0530Z.150803T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
940 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Cypress Creek At Worthington Gardens
* Until further notice
* At 09 PM Tuesday the stage was...8.5 feet
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 8.9 feet by early Monday morning then 
  begin falling.
* Impact...at 8.0 feet...Flooding begins at the recreation area on State Road 
  54.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 8.9 feet on Nov 26 
  1988.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun

Cypress Creek
 Worthington   8   8.5  Tue  9 PM   8.6    8.6    8.5    8.3    MSG


&&


LAT...LON 2819 8234 2814 8234 2814 8240 2819 8240




$$

FLC057-291440-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.150727T1840Z.150731T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
940 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* Until further notice
* At 09 PM Tuesday the stage was...11.5 feet
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 14.0 feet by Friday early afternoon 
  then begin falling.
* Impact...at 14.5 feet...Flooding of several houses begins near 32nd and 33rd 
  streets in Ruskin.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...The canoe rental area floods.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...The river overflows its banks.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.0 feet on Aug 16 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun

Little Manatee
 Wimauma      11  11.5  Tue  9 PM  13.0   13.9   13.7   12.2    MSG


&&


LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231




$$

FLC115-291440-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.150727T1300Z.150730T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
940 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Myakka River At Myakka River State Park
* Until further notice
* At 09 PM Tuesday the stage was...7.5 feet
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 7.8 feet by Thursday morning then begin
  falling.
* Impact...at 8.5 feet...Most of Myakka State Park is closed.
* Impact...at 8.0 feet...The main road at Myakka State Park floods.
* Impact...at 7.0 feet...Trails, picnic areas, and parking lots at Myakka State
  Park flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 7.8 feet on Oct 9 
  1999.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun

Myakka
 Myakka Rive   7   7.5  Tue  9 PM   7.8    7.8    7.7    7.6    MSG


&&


LAT...LON 2726 8226 2715 8234 2715 8238 2731 8226




$$

FLC101-291440-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150801T0600Z/
/ELFF1.2.ER.150725T1413Z.150727T0830Z.150801T0000Z.NO/
940 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Anclote River At Elfers
* Until late Friday night
* At 09 PM Tuesday the stage was...21.6 feet
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 21.9 feet by early Thursday morning. 
  The river is expected to fall below flood stage Friday evening.
* Impact...at 22.0 feet...There is water over the roadway along the Elfers 
  Parkway.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.8 feet on Sep 20 
  1947.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun

Anclote River
 Elfers       20  21.6  Tue  9 PM  21.8   20.9   18.8   16.8    MSG


&&


LAT...LON 2820 8263 2819 8271 2817 8271 2817 8275
 2823 8272 2824 8263                  



$$

055 
WGUS82 KTBW 291341
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
941 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...A river Flood Warning continues for...The Anclote River at
Elfers...Cypress Creek at Worthington Gardens...Little Manatee 
River at Wimauma and the Myakka River at Myakka River State Park...

..Scattered rain showers and storms combined with runoff from
heavy rains over the past several days continues to cause elevated 
water levels along local rivers. Widespread rainfall over the 
coming days will keep some rivers above flood stage throughout 
the week.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas...

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC101-301341-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.150728T0530Z.150730T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
941 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cypress Creek At Worthington Gardens
* Until further notice
* At 09 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 8.9 feet by this evening
then begin falling.
* Impact...at 8 feet...Flooding begins at the recreation area on
State Road 54.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 8.8
feet on Sep 30 2013.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun   
Mon

Cypress Creek
 Worthington   8   8.8  Wed 09 AM   8.9    8.4    8.2    8.1   
8.0


&&


LAT...LON 2819 8234 2814 8234 2814 8240 2819 8240


$$

FLC057-301341-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150802T0000Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.150727T1840Z.150729T0600Z.150801T1800Z.NO/
941 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening...The Flood
Warning continues for The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* From Friday morning through Saturday evening.
* At 09 AM Wednesday the stage was 11.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 11 feet.
* Impact...at 11 feet...The river overflows its banks.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.4
feet on Sep 17 2013.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun   
Mon

Little Manatee
 Wimauma      11  11.4  Wed 09 AM  11.0   11.0   11.1   10.4   
9.5


&&


LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231


$$

FLC115-301341-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.150727T1300Z.150730T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
941 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Myakka River At Myakka River State Park
* Until further notice
* At 09 AM Wednesday the stage was 7.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 7 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 7.8 feet by this evening
then begin falling.
* Impact...at 8.5 feet...Most of Myakka State Park is closed.
* Impact...at 8 feet...The main road at Myakka State Park
floods.
* Impact...at 7 feet...Trails, picnic areas, and parking lots at
Myakka State Park flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 7.2
feet on Sep 9 2013.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun   
Mon

Myakka
 Myakka Rive   7   7.6  Wed 09 AM   7.8    7.6    7.7    7.7   
7.6


&&


LAT...LON 2726 8226 2715 8234 2715 8238 2731 8226


$$

FLC101-301341-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150731T1200Z/
/ELFF1.2.ER.150725T1413Z.150727T0830Z.150731T0600Z.NO/
941 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Friday morning...The Flood Warning
continues for The Anclote River At Elfers.
* Until Friday morning
* At 09 AM Wednesday the stage was 21.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by early Friday
morning.
* Impact...at 22.0 feet...There is water over the roadway along
the Elfers Parkway.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6
feet on Mar 14 2010.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun   
Mon

Anclote River
 Elfers       20  21.4  Wed 09 AM  20.9   19.7   18.8   17.4  
15.9


&&


LAT...LON 2820 8263 2819 8271 2817 8271 2817 8275
 2823 8272 2824 8263                  



$$

491 
WGUS82 KTBW 300143
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
943 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...A river Flood Warning continues for the Anclote River at Elfers...the
Myakka River at Myakka State Park...and Cypress Creek at Worthington Gardens...

...The river Flood Warning for the Little Manatee River at Wimauma is
canceled...

.Heavy rain the past several days across west central Florida caused several
rivers to rise above flood stage.  The Little Manatee river fell below flood
stage earlier this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas...

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC101-301443-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150803T1800Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.150728T0530Z.150730T0600Z.150803T1200Z.NO/
943 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Monday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  The Cypress Creek At Worthington Gardens
* Until Monday afternoon
* At 09 PM Wednesday the stage was 8.9 feet
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet
* Impact...at 8.0 feet...Flooding begins at the recreation area on State Road 
  54.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 8.8 feet on Sep 30 
  2013.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon

Cypress Creek
 Worthington   8  8.9  Wed 09 PM   8.9    8.6    8.4    8.2    8.0


&&


LAT...LON 2819 8234 2814 8234 2814 8240 2819 8240




$$

FLC115-301443-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.150727T1300Z.150730T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
943 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Myakka River At Myakka River State Park
* Until further notice
* At 09 PM Wednesday the stage was 7.7 feet
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 7.7 feet by midnight tonight 
  then begin falling.
* Impact...at 8.0 feet...The main road at Myakka State Park floods.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 7.2 feet on Sep 9 
  2013.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon

Myakka
 Myakka Rive   7  7.7  Wed 09 PM   7.7    7.7    7.6    7.6    7.6


&&


LAT...LON 2726 8226 2715 8234 2715 8238 2731 8226




$$

FLC101-301443-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150731T1030Z/
/ELFF1.2.ER.150725T1413Z.150727T0830Z.150731T0430Z.NO/
943 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Friday morning...The Flood Warning continues for
  The Anclote River At Elfers
* Until Friday morning
* At 09 PM Wednesday the stage was 21.2 feet
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet
* Impact...at 22.0 feet...There is water over the roadway along the Elfers 
  Parkway.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 feet on Mar 14 
  2010.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon

Anclote River
 Elfers       20 21.2  Wed 09 PM  20.9   19.7   19.1   18.0   16.4


&&


LAT...LON 2820 8263 2819 8271 2817 8271 2817 8275
 2823 8272 2824 8263                  



$$

FLC057-300213-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150802T0000Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.150727T1840Z.150729T0600Z.150729T2230Z.NO/
943 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Little Manatee River At Wimauma
* Until Saturday evening
* At 09 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.9 feet
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...The river overflows its banks.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.4 feet on Sep 17 
  2013.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon

Little Manatee
 Wimauma      11 10.9  Wed 09 PM  10.6   10.1   10.0    9.7    9.1


&&


LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231




$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
339 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK CONFIGURATION
OVER THE LENGTH OF CANADA. A DEEP TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANCHORED BY CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THE FLOW THEN RIDGES UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES BEFORE DROPPING BACK SOUTH AROUND A CLOSED LOW
FEATURE OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE CENTRAL RIDGE IS EXTENDING
NORTH FROM LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN VERY STUBBORN
FOR SOME TIME NOW...AND PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN A NORTH/NE
HIGH LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CIRCULATION. IN THE MID-LEVELS THE FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
DEFINED...AND WE FIND A WEAK/POORLY DEFINED DISTURBANCE/VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SPINNING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST/EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAS PENETRATED INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...HOWEVER THE DRIEST AIR IS STAYING NORTH/NW
OF OUR REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX...GENERALLY FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE PENINSULA. KTBW 12Z SOUNDING APPEARED TO BE
ON THE EDGE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH A MOIST
PROFILE THROUGH ABOUT 400MB...AND A PW VALUE OF 2.15". THIS VALUE
IS UP AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF PWATS FOR LATE JULY. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...THE MOIST PROFILE COMES WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES THROUGH THE LOWER/MID TROP. ONE OF THE PARAMETERS WE GIVE A
QUICK LOOK AT WHEN INITIALLY ANALYZING A SOUNDING PROFILE DURING
THE SUMMER FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THE 500MB TEMPS. THE 500MB
TEMP THIS MORNING IS MEASURED AT -4.5C. THIS IS VERY WARM...EVEN
FOR MID SUMMER AND REPRESENT A VALUE OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
JULY. THIS SOUNDING IS ONE INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE STORMS...BUT OF LOW SEVERE THREAT. THE WEAK
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WEAKER UPDRAFT...KEEP HAIL
AND PRECIP LOADING AT A MINIMUM...AND IN FACT...OVERALL LIGHTING
COUNTS SHOULD BE LOW THE REST OF TODAY AS WELL DUE TO THE HIGHER
ALTITUDE OF MIXED PHASE HYDROMETEORS.

AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE A VERY WEAK SURFACE NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST. THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE SPIN SEEN WITH THE RADAR RETURN
IS MORE LIKELY A COMPONENT OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE
SOLUTION YOU USE...THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW MAY DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...BUT AN ENSEMBLE MEAN WOULD CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TO THE NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...OR BE PUSHED OFFSHORE.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT (AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
WILL BE ALONG THE SUNCOAST COUNTIES WITH THE CONVERGENT ONSHORE
FLOW COMPONENT...AND WITHIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILE.

FOR MONDAY...SURFACE LOW DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FL
BIG BEND REGION. AS THIS OCCURS THE MORE FAVORABLE ONSHORE COMPONENT
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT OR EXPAND NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE
END RESULT IS ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS WHERE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONGEAL OFF THE GULF.
BASED ON WHAT HAS FALLEN TODAY AND CONTINUED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH FROM PASCO COUNTY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO LEE COUNTY INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
LACK OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR AND LESS CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL ZONES WILL
ALLOW US TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR POLK...HARDEE...AND DESOTO
COUNTIES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY WILL NOT GET INTO A
DEFINED ONSHORE FLOW IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE EVENTUAL LATE DAY
LOW POSITION...HOWEVER THE COLUMN WILL STILL BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE LEADING TO SCT-NMRS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND
SHIFT WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN STATES.
THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND A STALLED
SURFACE TROUGH HANGING AROUND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...A DEVELOPING CUTOFF
LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AND
LIFT NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FROM ABOUT TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WILL SEE A BIT
MORE VARIABLE (AND HARDER TO PREDICT) LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTH. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO HANG
AROUND...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO PEAK
IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE EACH DAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ADDING MORE RAINFALL TO ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVER BASINS AND
POTENTIALLY PROLONGING THE FLOOD THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE ALL THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VIS WILL IMPACT EACH TERMINAL AS THE STORM ROLL PAST. DEEPER
INTO THE EVENING...MUCH OF THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT OF ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
DOWN TOWARD KFMY/KRSW WHERE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE OFF
THE GULF.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR TAMPA BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY
AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD TOWARD APALACHEE BAY DURING
MONDAY. WINDS AROUND THIS CIRCULATION WILL GENERALLY GIVE AN
OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. DURING MONDAY...THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OUR FORECAST WATERS BY THE END OF THE DAY. A
GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
WATERS FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STAY IN THE
FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER THAN CLIMO RAIN CHANCES
WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH TO
LEE COUNTY UNTIL 8 AM ON MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN IN MANY AREAS FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF STREETS AND URBAN AREAS TO DEVELOP TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS STREAMING IN FROM
THE GULF OVER LEE COUNTY...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
22Z TODAY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWEST PASCO COUNTY HAS CAUSED THE ANCLOTE
RIVER AT ELFERS TO RISE TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER CRESTED
THIS AFTERNOON AT 23.5 FEET AND IS CURRENTLY DROPPING. THIS RIVER
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE OF ANY MORE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA
OR UPSTREAM FOR RUNOFF. IF RAINFALL HOLDS OFF IN THE AREA...THE
RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTH...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK HAS REACHED
ACTION STAGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
AT THIS TIME. THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA IS EXPECTED TO GO
ABOVE ACTION STAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. AS WITH ALL RIVERS DURING THE RAINY
SEASON...WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS CAUSING ANY FURTHER RISE IN THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  88  78  87 /  50  70  40  60
FMY  77  88  78  90 /  70  80  30  60
GIF  75  88  76  89 /  50  70  30  50
SRQ  77  86  78  88 /  70  80  40  60
BKV  75  89  75  89 /  50  70  30  60
SPG  78  87  78  88 /  50  70  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM...FLEMING
HYDROLOGY...WYNN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
447 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-270900-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
447 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY...AND THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES OF POLK...HARDEE...AND DESOTO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
HIGH SURF WILL PRODUCE RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES FROM
MANATEE COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT
ELFERS. ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS
IN OTHER RIVER BASINS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE MAIN RIVERS AT
RISK OF FLOODING ARE THE ALAFIA...LITTLE MANATEE...MYAKKA...AND
PEACE RIVERS...AS WELL AS CYPRESS CREEK. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG
RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF WATER
LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE
OBSERVED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
RIVER FLOODING MAY PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. RESIDENTS
LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE
OF WATER LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD
FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
148 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLOOD            2 NW ESTERO             26.50N 81.84W
07/26/2015                   LEE                FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS OF
            NEIGHBORHOOD FLOODING IN THE SAN CARLOS PARK AREA OF
            SOUTHERN LEE COUNTY.

&&

RGARCIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
222 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FLOOD            4 NW FORT MYERS         26.66N 81.90W
07/26/2015                   LEE                FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED REPORTS OF WATER ON HANCOCK CREEK
            RISING ABOVE SEAWALLS.

&&

RGARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
348 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FLZ149-249-262015-
COASTAL PASCO-INLAND PASCO-
348 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN PASCO COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE MONITORING DEVELOPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PASCO AT 345 PM EDT. A LINE
OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM TRINITY TO HUDSON IN WESTERN PASCO
COUNTY. NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO
ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THOUGH SOME AREAS
COULD SEE A LOCALIZED INCH OR TWO OF NEW RAINFALL.

RESIDENTS IN THE IMPACTED AREA SHOULD MONITOR BROADCAST OUTLETS AND
NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON FLOODING IN THEIR
AREA. IF YOU ENCOUNTER A ROAD COVERED WITH WATER...TURN AROUND AND
FIND ANOTHER ROUTE. FLOOD WATERS CAN EASILY COMPROMISE ROADWAYS AND
CREATE DANGEROUS AND UNSANITARY CONDITIONS.

REPORT FLOODING TO PASCO COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...WHO WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN. YOU CAN
ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORTS TO NWSTAMPABAY OR SHARE THEM WITH NWS TAMPA
BAY ON FACEBOOK.

LAT...LON 2823 8275 2823 8276 2826 8275 2831 8274
      2837 8270 2840 8271 2844 8267 2843 8250
      2817 8253 2817 8279 2819 8280
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 180DEG 0KT 2822 8268

RAG