River Flood Warning 18, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
254 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDING IN NORTH OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SO THERE WILL BE NO IMPEDIMENT TO CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...THE FIRST AREAS OF CONVECTION BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE INTERIOR AROUND NOON TODAY...WITH STORMS BEGINNING TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER STRONG SURFACE HEATING. SOUTHEAST FLOW
FAVORS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...SO THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
LARGELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. WITH NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN FOR MONDAY...EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR DAY TO DEVELOP ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UPPER RIDGING REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION WHILE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
KEEPING SE FLOW OVER THE AREA. THESE FEATURES COMBINE FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA
BREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. BEST AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS...WITH DECREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE GULF IN THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED AS STORMS CROSS OVER INDIVIDUAL
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REGAIN CONTROL BY AROUND
03Z AND HOLD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. EASTERLY SURGES WILL BRING WINDS UP TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS EACH NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE NO
MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LOW ERC VALUES WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  77  91 /  30  60  30  40
FMY  76  92  76  92 /  40  60  30  50
GIF  75  92  76  92 /  20  60  30  50
SRQ  76  90  76  91 /  30  50  30  30
BKV  74  92  74  92 /  30  60  30  40
SPG  78  91  78  91 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS