Lake Wind Advisory 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
810 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT IN
THE GULF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER WITH THE CONVECTION
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT CURRENT TRENDS AND HAVE
THEREFORE MOVED THE TIMING OF THE HIGHEST POPS UP A FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME
TO AN END BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM AND
MUGGY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
AND SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE AREA DURING SATURDAY. WINDS
HAVE SUBSIDED SOME THIS EVENING...EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AWAY FROM
THE COAST UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL THEREFORE DROP THE ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...BUT LEAVE IT IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. HAVE ALREADY
TWEAKED GRIDS FOR THESE CHANGES AND WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. FRONT IS PREDICTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MORE
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AND REMAIN RATHER BREEZY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS
NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL THEN
BE UP FOR THE ENTIRE WATERS SATURDAY AS ROBUST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
SETUP BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER IMPULSE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  63  66  44  64 /  90  30   0   0
FMY  68  71  47  68 /  70  50   0   0
GIF  63  68  42  65 /  90  40   0   0
SRQ  65  67  46  66 /  90  40   0   0
BKV  59  63  36  64 /  90  30   0   0
SPG  63  65  51  64 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-
     INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
     POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...72/NOAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
457 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-241000-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
457 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEARING THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL MAY PRODUCE RIP CURRENTS ALONG
AREA BEACHES SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS BEHIND COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

GARCIA

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