Freeze Warning 3, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
855 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

...RAIN OVERNIGHT THEN VERY COLD FLORIDA TEMPS THE REST OF THE
WEEK...

.UPDATE...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE U.S. AS SEEN IN UPPER AIR
PLOTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER FLORIDA THIS EVENING. SERIES OF VORT
MAXES TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TO KEEP OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. 00Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWING SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS AT 1.64 INCHES AND STRONG 130 KT JET STREAK
OVERHEAD. COLD HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY BUILDING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF AND DEEP SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING 4-6 MB GRADIENT TO
PRODUCE COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.
EVEN COLDER REINFORCING ARCTIC AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TO
END THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LARGE RAIN SHIELD TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE E GULF
OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RA AND AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS DURING THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION CIGS RUNNING BKN-OVC 050-080. CIGS AND VSBY
TO IMPROVE AFTER 12Z AND BECOMING VFR ALL SITES WEDNESDAY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY PAST THE WATERS
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BRIEFLY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THE WEATHER CLEARS AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY DAYBREAK.
LATEST OFFSHORE BUOY REPORTS SHOWING SEAS AROUND 6 FT AND THE
INCREASING WINDS WILL BUILD THE SEA FURTHER. DUE TO HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS...WILL HOIST SCA ALL OFFSHORE WATERS AND SCEC ON BAY
AND INLAND WATERS.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN OR EVEN INCREASE
THE STRONG WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL IMPROVE ON FRIDAY BUT A MODERATE
NORTHEAST WIND WILL STILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  51  60  40  53 /  90  10   0   0
FMY  58  65  42  60 /  60  40   0   0
GIF  51  61  37  55 /  90  20   0   0
SRQ  54  60  43  56 /  90  20   0   0
BKV  47  56  32  51 /  80  10   0   0
SPG  55  58  46  54 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...25/DAVIS
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON