Beach Hazards Statement 6, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
334 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
STRUNG ACROSS THE KEYS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA RESIDING IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THESE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE (MODEL PWAT VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 2.25
INCHES) TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE...BUT CHANCES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHES TO THE EAST. ON
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO INCH NORTHWARD...BUT
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
WEAKER THAN TODAY). MOISTURE WILL STILL BE MORE FAVORABLE OVER
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4...WITH SCATTERED STORMS IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN FILLING IN FARTHER SOUTH AS THE
WESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN PUSHES THE CONVECTION INLAND.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING NORTH TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SW FLOW ACROSS THE NATURE COAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND IN THE
70S EACH MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING THREATENED AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT AS
HIGH. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD AGAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
SITTING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A COMPRESSED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO PEAK IN THE EXERCISE
CAUTION RANGE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TODAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AND SETTLE IN ACROSS
THE WATERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  90  78 /  60  20  40  10
FMY  92  76  93  76 /  30  10  30  10
GIF  90  75  92  75 /  60  20  40  20
SRQ  89  77  90  76 /  50  20  30  10
BKV  88  73  90  73 /  70  30  40  20
SPG  88  78  90  80 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
524 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-282000-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
524 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
PERSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS... AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
CONTINUED WESTERLY WINDS MAY PRODUCE RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

HUBBARD