Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
323 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WITH STACKED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, THE SEA-
BREEZE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR CONVECTION TODAY,
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE ENHANCED
SLIGHTLY BY THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL AS IT MOVES
OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF OUR INLAND ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME
MAY LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA TODAY, AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE, SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. HIGHS TODAY WILL PEAK IN THE MID 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

NORTHWESTERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW (1000-700MB LAYER) WILL BECOME
LIGHT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COL EVOLVES, WITH OUR AREA
SITUATED BETWEEN TWO RELATIVELY CLOSE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS/RIDGES
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FAVOR A TYPE ONE SEA BREEZE REGIME IN OUR
LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY - WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SUCH
A PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR SCATTERED STORMS IN OUR FLORIDA ZONES,
WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE IN OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ZONES.
HOWEVER, A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY MAY AUGMENT THIS
SLIGHTLY AND LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
(40-50% POPS INCLUDED IN MOST LOCATIONS). 925-850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THAN WHAT WE SAW THIS WEEKEND BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HIGHS WERE KEPT
IN THE MID-90S OVER OUR FLORIDA ZONES WHERE EARLIER AND GREATER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
UPPER 90S WERE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
HEAT INDICES EACH DAY MAY APPROACH LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(>108F), BUT CONFIDENCE IN THOSE VALUES BEING ACHIEVED IN A
SPECIFIC AREA ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY ISSUANCE YET.

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING NEAR 2 INCHES AND THE RETURN OF
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
DESPITE A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY STEADY 925-850MB
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. SOME SLIGHT COOLING IS
THEN FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE IN
THE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z MONDAY] GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AT ECP, OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SCATTERED, SO PUT VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH
STORMS DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. DAILY INCREASES IN
WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND AN INCREASING CHOP ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

OTHER THAN HIGH DISPERSIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS...THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS WEEK SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
GIVEN THE WEAK WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON ANY GIVEN DAY. HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR FLOODING ON LARGER, PRIMARY RIVERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   75  96  76  95  76 /  10  50  20  50  20
PANAMA CITY   80  90  80  89  79 /  10  50  20  40  20
DOTHAN        75  98  76  99  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
ALBANY        75  99  75  99  75 /  10  40  20  30  20
VALDOSTA      73  98  74  96  74 /  20  50  20  30  20
CROSS CITY    75  95  75  95  75 /  10  30  20  40  20
APALACHICOLA  79  91  79  91  79 /  10  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS

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