Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Tallahassee, FL

235 
WWUS52 KTAE 011914
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

FLC065-011923-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-150601T1930Z/
JEFFERSON FL-
314 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3032 8351 3034 8368 3061 8359 3066 8359
      3084 8360 3063 8324 3063 8329 3062 8327
      3055 8326 3052 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 230DEG 21KT 3065 8355 3051 8343 

$$

FLC079-GAC027-185-011930-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-150601T1930Z/
MADISON FL-LOWNDES GA-BROOKS GA-
314 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL MADISON...SOUTHWESTERN LOWNDES AND SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS
COUNTIES...

AT 313 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES 
SOUTH OF QUITMAN TO NEAR MADISON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THEST 
STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF BLOWING DOWN TREES IN MADISON COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MADISON...QUITMAN...GREENVILLE...BROOKS CO A/P...PINETTA...MOSELEY
HALL...HAMBURG...NANKIN...LOVETT...HOPEWELL...HANSON...EMPRESS...
CHERRY LAKE...SIRMANS AND EBB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. THIS IS A 
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND 
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
 
&&

LAT...LON 3032 8351 3034 8368 3061 8359 3066 8359
      3084 8360 3063 8324 3063 8329 3062 8327
      3055 8326 3052 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 230DEG 21KT 3065 8355 3051 8343 

$$

42-DVD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1126 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THIS
WEEK...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER MEMPHIS, WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY
TO THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH A STRONG 60-80 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WAVE, THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST
AREA IN THE FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THEREFORE,
CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY MORE THAN JUST THE SEA BREEZE
AND WE ANTICIPATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. EVEN TRADITIONAL MOS
GUIDANCE AT 00Z GENERALLY PLACED LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. OUR LOCAL HI-RES MODEL ENSEMBLE WAS EVEN MORE
ROBUST, WITH 80-90% POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE
10. THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE DID NOT TREND THE FORECAST
QUITE THAT HIGH WITH LIKELY (60-70%) POPS INCLUDED ESSENTIALLY
MORE THAN 15 MILES AWAY FROM THE COAST, AND A FEW AREAS OF 80%
POPS INCLUDED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM DE FUNIAK SPRINGS EAST
TO TALLAHASSEE. CONVECTION SHOULD GET AN EARLY START TODAY, WITH
MOST HI-RES MODELS INDICATING INITIATION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS EARLY AS 15-16Z. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
THAT HAPPEN. ALL OF THIS REASONING REMAINS SOUND AND NO CHANGES
TO THE POP/WX GRIDS WERE NECESSARY THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WELL. SPC HAS
ONCE AGAIN INCLUDED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS (SOMETHING WE WILL LIKELY SEE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [331 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SHOW VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MIDWAY THROUGH OUR
CWA. A PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY RESIDE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RIVER ON TUESDAY WITH SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
FILTERING IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A VERY WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. ON
TUESDAY POPS WILL BE TAPERED GOOD CHANCE WEST TO LIKELY EAST.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN, POPS WILL BE TAPERED MID RANGE CHANCE (30%) WEST TO GOOD
CHANCE (50%) EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND OPEN UP AS
IT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINA'S ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENDING TROUGH WILL LINGER AND EVEN DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST, THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. DAYTIME POPS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID CHANCE RANGE, MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY] SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE,
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. IN GENERAL, MVFR VISIBILITY WOULD
BE EXPECTED, BUT IFR/LIFR CIGS OR VIS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT TIMES
WHERE FOG DOES DEVELOP - PARTICULARLY AT TLH AND VLD. AFTER THAT,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD,
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
LOCAL IFR VIS). SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 16-18Z
AROUND ECP AND TLH AND THEN QUICKLY EXPAND INLAND AFFECTING THE
OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CALM SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE AND BE ENHANCED NEAR THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.

.FIRE WEATHER...

WETTING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH FAIRLY HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.HYDROLOGY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, WITH ANY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM ISOLATED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  69  86  68  89 /  80  50  70  50  40
PANAMA CITY   84  71  82  73  85 /  50  40  60  30  30
DOTHAN        86  67  86  67  88 /  70  40  60  30  40
ALBANY        89  67  87  67  88 /  60  50  70  50  50
VALDOSTA      91  69  87  68  90 /  60  50  70  50  50
CROSS CITY    89  68  84  67  87 /  60  40  70  50  50
APALACHICOLA  85  73  84  74  85 /  30  40  70  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...WOOL/LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
140 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     TSTM WND GST     FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSIT 30.44N 84.30W
06/01/2015  M47 MPH          LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO TREES FELL ON VEHICLES AT HENDRY DRIVE AND STADIUM
            DRIVE AT FSU. THE PEAK GUST MEASURED ON CAMPUS WAS 47
            MPH.

&&

DVD