Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Tallahassee, FL

891 
WWUS52 KTAE 311740
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
140 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FLC039-073-311750-
/O.EXP.KTAE.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-150531T1745Z/
GADSDEN FL-LEON FL-
140 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN GADSDEN AND
CENTRAL LEON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 145 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TALLAHASSEE.

LAT...LON 3046 8435 3044 8443 3051 8453 3060 8455
      3065 8445 3064 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 169DEG 11KT 3051 8439 

$$

42-DVD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
951 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION IS ON TAP FOR TODAY.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY, WHICH WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH PWATS
RISING BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z
KTAE SOUNDING SUPPORTS THIS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST, POINT TO AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. CLIMATOLOGY FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW
(SUPPORTED BY LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE), SUGGESTS ACTIVITY BEGINNING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I- 10 BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
ECAM GUIDANCE. SPC DOES HAVE MOST INLAND AREAS OUTLOOKED FOR A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
INCREASE LAPSE RATES. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [641 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD,
WHICH TENDS TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
SUMMER SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE SEASON. POPS WERE NUDGED UP TOWARD
THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. 1000-700MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
WEAKER ON MONDAY, WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR HIGHER COVERAGE FOCUSED IN
OUR FLORIDA ZONES, AND STRONGER ON TUESDAY WHICH FAVORS FAIRLY
HIGH COVERAGE OVER OUR ENTIRE AREA. THEREFORE, SOME AREAS OF
"LIKELY" (60%) POPS WERE INCLUDED ON TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES - GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MEANDERS AROUND
THE SOUTHEAST. THE EXACT POSITIONING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN JUST HOW
HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE, BUT THERE IS SOME INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE MID-UPPER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY] SOME PATCHY FOG EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION BUT
HAS THUS FAR AVOIDED THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER VIS RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE IFR RANGE ARE LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY GET AN EARLY START NEAR THE GULF COAST ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TLH AND ECP AS EARLY AS THE 16-18Z
TIME FRAME BEFORE EXPANDING INLAND. ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS TODAY. THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CALM SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE AND BE ENHANCED NEAR THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, NO HAZARDOUS FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.HYDROLOGY...

AS LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WHILE
AVERAGE RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD BE AROUND 0.5 TO
1.0 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, BUT IF SLOW-MOVING STORMS PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SOME
ISOLATED URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   90  70  89  71  87 /  50  10  50  20  60
PANAMA CITY   85  72  83  72  83 /  30  20  30  30  50
DOTHAN        89  69  87  68  85 /  50  30  40  30  60
ALBANY        89  69  89  69  87 /  50  40  40  30  50
VALDOSTA      91  68  90  69  87 /  50  40  40  20  60
CROSS CITY    89  69  89  70  87 /  50  40  40  20  60
APALACHICOLA  86  72  85  72  84 /  20  20  30  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...WOOL/LAMERS
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS