Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Tallahassee, FL

May 19, 2015Leon County, Florida

NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 19, 2015, 6:57 PM EDT for Leon County, Florida. It was in force for 35 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 19, 2015, 6:57 PM EDT (22:57 UTC)
Expired: May 19, 2015, 7:32 PM EDT
In force: 35 min
Issued by: NWS Tallahassee, FL
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Leon County, FL

The radar

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 9 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 19, 7:09 PM EDT	TSTM WND GST 60	5 Sw Tallahassee Coml A, FL	KTLH RECORDED PEAK GUST OF 60 MPH.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 12 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 11 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 222 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -75 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 981 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 11 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

933 
WUUS52 KTAE 192257
SVRTAE
FLC073-192345-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0066.150519T2257Z-150519T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
657 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL LEON COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 657 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF
  MIDWAY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TALLAHASSEE...TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL A/P...LAKE BRADFORD...LEON
  SINKS...ANDREW...HELEN...EIGHT MILE POND AND LAKE MUNSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3035 8449 3044 8437 3034 8426 3030 8436
      3030 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 237DEG 4KT 3035 8441 

$$

08-LAMERS

2 follow-up statements

443 
WWUS52 KTAE 192323
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
723 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FLC073-192345-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-150519T2345Z/
LEON FL-
723 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LEON COUNTY...

AT 722 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR TALLAHASSEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM PRODUCED A 60 MPH WIND GUST AT THE TALLAHASSEE AIRPORT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TALLAHASSEE...TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL 
AIRPORT...LAKE BRADFORD AND LAKE MUNSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF 
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. 

&&

LAT...LON 3037 8438 3042 8435 3037 8430 3035 8427
      3034 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 242DEG 7KT 3039 8432 

$$

08-LAMERS

336 
WWUS52 KTAE 192332
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
732 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FLC073-192341-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-150519T2345Z/
LEON FL-
732 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LEON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM ADDITIONAL STORMS 
ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF TALLAHASSEE IN THE NEXT 20 TO 30 
MINUTES.

LAT...LON 3037 8438 3042 8435 3037 8430 3035 8427
      3034 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 237DEG 4KT 3040 8431 

$$

08-LAMERS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 19, 4:16 PM EDT, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 19, 4:16 PM EDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
416 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA...WITH THE NEAR 50% AREAL COVERAGE AIR MASS
FREE CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING PAST 9 PM.
A QUIET NIGHT WITH EITHER CLEAR SKIES OR SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND A WESTERLY BREEZE. WIND PROTECTED INLAND AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED
RAINFALL TODAY ARE THE MOST SUSPECT TO THE PRE-DAWN FORMATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. INLAND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SLIGHTLY
UNDER 70F...LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
OVER THE CWA AROUND DOTHAN THROUGH ALBANY. ON WEDNESDAY VARIOUS
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS, AND THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM,
WILL PROVIDE 30-40 POPS FOR OUR CWA. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND EURO BEGIN TO EMERGE THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS FASTER,
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA AND WITH IT, DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE. THE EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DELAYS THE DRY AIR
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES CHOSE A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH HAS THE FRONT BISECTING OUR CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND, MOST OF OUR GA AND AL COUNTIES SHOULD
BE NEARLY DRY ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF DOTHAN AND ALBANY)
WITH MOST T-STORM ACTIVITY PINNED TO THE FLORIDA ZONES. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT IF THE FRONT FOLLOWS THE EURO SOLUTION, WE COULD SEE
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN (AROUND 30 PERCENT) IN OUR AL AND GA
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SOME MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR COULD AID STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
IN THE SHORT TERM AND IN THE LOW 90S. AT NIGHT, TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL COOL TO THE MID 60S NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALBANY
THROUGH DOTHAN. FURTHER SOUTH, MORE HUMID AIR WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES ONLY TO DIP TO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
WITH APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES MOVING SOUTH WITH IT. NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY (IF ANY) PINNED SOUTH OF I-10.
WHILE THERE EXISTS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES , BOTH THE GFS AND EURO REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE IN THE LONG TERM AND QUICKLY MOVE THE SFC HIGH
EAST AND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY RETURN IN THE
MOIST SE FLOW.

THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE OUR AREA JUST WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR OUR AREA IS EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY COULD BE SOME UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
MOVING WEST INTO OUR CWA FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THE
WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
SOUTHEASTERN PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION
WILL TRAVEL INTO EXTREME SE'ERN ALABAMA...INTO A HEATED AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR SCT TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE DHN AND ABY TERMINALS.
ALBEIT RANDOM IN NATURE...POCKETS OF FREE CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND OVER THE TLH AND VLD SITES PER SFC TEMPS
REACHING THE LOWER 90S IN THE PAST HOUR UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY
DAY SKIES/FEW CU FIELD. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION FIRING OVER BAY AND
GULF COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY
IMPACT ANY REGIONAL TERMINAL. THE INDIRECT IMPACT WILL BE FROM
GUST FRONT INTERACTIONS ENHANCING LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
ALL INLAND HUBS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH 5-10 KNOTS WINDS. AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ELEVATE SEAS AND
WINDS. POSSIBLY TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SUMMER-LIKE SEABREEZE PATTERN AND WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND 20-40% THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE NATURE
OF THESE STORMS, COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTED AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW AN INCH. SINCE OUR AREA RIVERS
ARE AT NORMAL LEVELS, THIS WILL NOT CAUSE FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  92  71  93  71 /  20  30  20  40  10
PANAMA CITY   74  84  74  84  72 /  10  30  20  30  10
DOTHAN        67  90  69  90  67 /  30  30  10  30  10
ALBANY        69  91  68  92  66 /  20  30  10  30  10
VALDOSTA      69  91  67  92  66 /  30  30  20  30  10
CROSS CITY    70  91  69  92  69 /  10  10  20  30  10
APALACHICOLA  72  86  75  86  74 /   0  20  20  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...MOORE/DOBBS
LONG TERM...MOORE/DOBBS
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...MOORE/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS/MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 19, 4:12 PM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
412 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

GAZ148-161-192100-
LANIER GA-BERRIEN GA-
412 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BERRIEN AND NORTHERN
LANIER COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RAY CITY...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF LAKELAND.
THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAY CITY...MEIGS...ALLENVILLE...TEETERVILLE AND NEW LOIS.

LAT...LON 3105 8312 3105 8328 3107 8328 3107 8330
      3109 8330 3110 8332 3112 8332 3115 8330
      3117 8331 3124 8305 3124 8304 3123 8305
      3118 8305 3118 8297 3111 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 316DEG 4KT 3114 8311

08-LAMERS

Special weather statement, May 19, 4:32 PM EDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
432 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

GAZ125-192100-
DOUGHERTY GA-
432 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DOUGHERTY COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

AT 432 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF LEARY...OR 11 MILES EAST OF
MORGAN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WALKER...DUCKER...PRETORIA AND LOCKETT CROSSING.

LAT...LON 3148 8423 3149 8442 3151 8444 3154 8445
      3155 8446 3159 8446 3161 8445 3162 8445
      3162 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 268DEG 19KT 3155 8441

08-LAMERS

Special weather statement, May 19, 4:56 PM EDT, 2 hours 1 minute before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
456 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

GAZ147-148-192130-
COOK GA-BERRIEN GA-
456 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COOK AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BERRIEN COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RAY CITY...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF NASHVILLE.
THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAY CITY AND NEW LOIS.

LAT...LON 3103 8323 3103 8327 3108 8337 3115 8331
      3111 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 296DEG 2KT 3110 8329

08-LAMERS

Special weather statement, May 19, 5:59 PM EDT, 58 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
459 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FLZ007-192230-
NORTH WALTON FL-
459 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WALTON COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM CDT...

AT 459 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF FLORALA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIBERTY...GORDON...NEW HARMONY...SAND HILL...GASKIN...PINEY GROVE...
FOX HILL...GLENDALE...CANEY CREEK AND CLUSTER SPRINGS.

LAT...LON 3082 8637 3094 8636 3098 8609 3080 8609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 269DEG 20KT 3088 8629

08-LAMERS

Special weather statement, May 19, 6:00 PM EDT, 57 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
500 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ALZ068-192230-
GENEVA AL-
500 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GENEVA COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM CDT...

AT 500 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAMSON...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF GENEVA...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GENEVA...SAMSON...COFFEE SPRINGS...PINEY GROVE...PERA...LYTLE...
SPEARS...SELLERSVILLE...MARL...EUNOLA...LOGAN FIELD MUNICIPAL A/P...
GENEVA MUNICIPAL A/P...CHANCELLOR AND HIGHFALLS.

LAT...LON 3106 8609 3117 8611 3119 8579 3103 8579
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 269DEG 15KT 3112 8597

08-LAMERS

Special weather statement, May 19, 6:27 PM EDT, 30 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
627 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FLZ027-192300-
INLAND WAKULLA FL-
627 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM EDT...

AT 627 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES WEST OF CRAWFORDVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
WAKULLA COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3017 8460 3024 8465 3030 8454 3019 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 249DEG 8KT 3023 8458

08-LAMERS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 19, 5:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Walton	31 min
May 19, 6:27 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Wakulla	33 min
May 19, 7:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Leon	23 min
May 19, 7:43 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Leon	47 min
May 19, 7:46 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Walton	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.