Severe Thunderstorm Warning 473, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
836 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The main concern today is the threat of severe weather, mainly
across the western half of the area. Currently, a squall line is
progressing eastward towards the area with a few discrete cells
out ahead of the line. The timing of the main line still looks to
be during the afternoon and early evening hours, although a few
cells could arrive in the far western counties prior to noon. A
special 06z sounding from New Orleans last night revealed an
impressive environment ahead of the squall line with SBCAPE around
1600 j/kg, very strong 0-1 km shear of 48 knots, and a strongly
curved hodograph in the low levels favorable for tornadoes and
damaging winds.

As we head through today, the environment is not expected to be
quite as favorable as that farther to the east closer to our area
as the main dynamics lift more to the north. However, we are still
looking at enough of a favorable overlap of shear and instability
to support a risk of severe weather, including isolated tornadoes,
across the western half of the forecast area.

We are also expecting it to become fairly breezy this afternoon
with a fairly strong wind field in the low levels and surface
temperatures warming into the 70s, allowing for decent vertical
mixing. Some gusts over 30 mph are possible across the western
half of the area, even outside of convection.

&&

.Prev Discussion [614 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
Model guidance shows the frontal system moving into the western
portions of the region this evening. While the convection should
be in a gradual weakening state, there is some potential for the
storms to remain strong through the early evening hours. After 06z
what little deep layer forcing remained in the evening shuts off
as the upper level system moves well to the north of the region.
This will leave a frontal zone in place across the forecast area
over the next couple of days.

On Tuesday afternoon as the boundary starts to lift back north as
a warm front, showers and scattered storms should form along this
front, primarily across the western half of the forecast area.
After a brief lull Wednesday morning, the next mid level impulse
will be moving across the Mid South and force the frontal zone
back to the south and into the region Wednesday afternoon,
bringing another chance for showers and storms. This system will
continue into the long term period, and does present the
potential for some moderate rainfall totals, partly due to the
very moist airmass that will be in place ahead of the frontal
zone.

Temperatures will continue to be unseasonably warm. Only the
abundant cloud cover will keep afternoon high temperatures largely
in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will remain in the mid to
upper 60s.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
A frontal zone will be bisecting the forecast area Wednesday night
and slowly push to the south of the forecast area by Thursday
evening. During this time, there will be some potential for
locally heavy rainfall. Overall deep layer forcing isn't
especially strong, so there doesn't appear to be as many unusual
factors with this system to suggest a heavy rainfall threat aside
from the high precipitable water values. Overall storm total
rainfall amounts from Monday through Thursday night look to be in
the 2 to 4 inch amount across the western areas and in the 1 to 2
inch range further to the east.

By Friday, if you've been looking for cooler weather, it will
arrive across the area as the overall pattern across the Eastern
CONUS transitions to a large trough. After an initial amplification
on Friday night, a reinforcing shot of cooler air looks to arrive
on Monday. While it will certainly feel cool, the incoming airmass
isn't arctic. In fact, temperatures will actually be very near
climatological norms for early January. Highs in the lower 60s and
lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Tuesday] Areas of IFR cigs will affect most of the
terminals this morning, then gradually lift to MVFR levels by
afternoon. SE-S winds 10 to 15 KT with gusts to 25 KT will
develop mid to late morning and last much of the day. A squall
line will reach KDHN and KECP mid to late afternoon, then weaken
as it reaches KTLH and KABY later this evening. Isolated T+ is
possible with the squall line this afternoon and early evening.
Low clouds and -DZ are possible overnight, though scattered SHRA,
left over from the weakening squall line, may disrupt low cloud
and fog formation at times.

.Marine...
Strong southeasterly flow ahead of an approaching storm system
will produce a brief period of advisory conditions over the
western waters through this afternoon. Thereafter, a weak pressure
pattern will result in light winds until Thursday night, when a
cold front will move across the marine area, shifting winds to
offshore.

.Fire Weather...
There are no fire weather concerns.

.Hydrology...
Moderate flooding continues at several forecast points across the
region. The Pea River has crested down to the Choctawhatchee River
at Geneva. Geneva will crest later today with the focus for
moderate flooding in the Choctawhatchee basin moving downstream
into Florida.

Pool elevations have finally dropped below 191 feet at Walter F
George, so releases there will be cut back throughout the day,
starting the process of ending the flooding ongoing in the
Chattahoochee Basin.

Over on the Flint, inflows from Montezuma appear to be less than
initially predicted at 45,000 cfs. While the latest forecasts are
not as high at Albany down to Bainbridge as a couple days ago,
there's still a good chance that moderate flood levels will be
reached at these sites in the coming days.

Releases from Woodruff will peak later today in the 160-165kcfs
range. Moderate flooding is occurring and will continue downstream
at Blountstown as a result. Additionally, flooding impacts will
continue to increase in magnitude on the lower portion of the
Apalachicola River near Wewahitchka.

Regarding rainfall totals from today through Thursday night, a
consensus of available model guidance suggests 2 to 4 inches of
rain across Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle with
lesser amounts possible further to the east. These amounts are not
expected to have a significant impact to area rivers aside from
some localized rises on the smaller river basins.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  68  79  67  79 /  30  30  30  20  40
Panama City   75  65  73  68  75 /  60  70  40  30  50
Dothan        76  61  72  64  75 /  90  70  60  50  70
Albany        78  65  75  64  77 /  40  70  50  30  60
Valdosta      80  67  81  66  81 /  20  20  20  20  30
Cross City    82  68  83  67  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  74  68  75  68  76 /  30  40  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening FOR South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
208 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 11 NNE PANAMA CITY BEAC 30.36N 85.79W
12/28/2015  M44 MPH          BAY                FL   ASOS

            PEAK GUST OF 38 KNOTS AT KECP AIRPORT

&&

DVD