Severe Thunderstorm Warning 458, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
348 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Latest radar at 19Z showed numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms developing in a weak convergence zone from FZG-VLD-
CTY, or roughly in the Interstate-75 corridor. This was well-
forecast by convection- allowing models, which indicate a westward
expansion through the rest of the afternoon and evening into areas
roughly northeast of a Dothan to Tallahassee line. Given their
performance thus far, and the trend toward northeasterly low-mid
level flow, we have generally followed the convection-allowing
models, although with slightly muted PoPs. The end result is a
chance of rain showers in most areas tonight, starting in the east
and transitioning to the west. Lows should be in the 60s in most
areas.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
As upper trough cuts off over Alabama tonight, a backdoor front
will push into the forecast area from the northeast. A cooler
airmass and overcast skies will be in store for Friday for the
entire forecast area. With deep cyclonic flow in place, scattered
showers will be possible on Friday, but rainfall should generally
be light. Expect highs on Friday to range from the upper 60s in
the north to the mid 70s in the south.

The upper low will hang around through Saturday, keeping skies
cloudy and temperatures cool. A few isolated showers will still be
possible on Saturday, but any rain should be light. The heaviest
axis of precip will remain well to the northeast.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The upper low will finally begin to slide east then northeast on
Sunday. However, with deep cyclonic flow still in place, a few
scattered showers cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will remain
pleasant, with highs in the 70s. By early to mid next week, the
upper flow will become much more zonal with dry conditions and
seasonable temperatures returning.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] Fairly widespread stratus has lingered over
southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, maintaining MVFR
CIGS at ECP and DHN into the afternoon. Intermittent MVFR CIGS
have also been observed at ABY, and can't be ruled out at TLH or
VLD either during the afternoon hours. The general trend should be
toward IFR CIGS in the evening, with these lower CIGS possibly
lasting through the end of the TAF period (18Z Friday). In fact, a
ceiling of some sort (MVFR or lower) seems likely through much of
the weekend as the area stays in moist northeasterly flow. Rain
showers will be possible at most of the terminals - more likely in
the east in the afternoon and evening (VLD, TLH, ABY), and in the
west later overnight and tomorrow morning (ECP and DHN).

&&

.Marine...
North to northwest winds will dominate the marine waters through
early next week. Conditions will likely reach exercise caution
levels tonight and persist through the weekend. Winds may briefly
reach advisory levels on Saturday or Sunday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
With RH values above 50 percent through the weekend, hazardous
fire weather conditions are not expected through Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Water levels in the rivers and streams over the western portion
of the area should continue to fall over the next several days.
Rainfall amounts through the weekend are expected to be minimal
with no additional flooding concerns anticipated.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  74  62  73  61 /  30  30  20  20  20
Panama City   67  74  63  73  63 /  30  30  20  20  20
Dothan        64  68  58  67  57 /  50  40  20  20  20
Albany        64  69  59  68  59 /  50  40  30  30  30
Valdosta      65  72  60  71  60 /  50  30  20  30  30
Cross City    70  79  63  77  63 /  50  20  20  20  20
Apalachicola  67  76  63  75  63 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...CAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
542 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

GAZ147-159-160-012215-
LOWNDES GA-BROOKS GA-COOK GA-
542 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BROOKS...SOUTHERN
COOK AND NORTHWESTERN LOWNDES COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 541 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF HAHIRA...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ADEL. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ADEL...VALDOSTA...HAHIRA...MORVEN...CECIL...PINE VALLEY...I-75 AT
EXIT 29...BARNEY...GREGGS AND COOK CO A/P.

LAT...LON 3087 8356 3103 8361 3103 8357 3107 8358
      3120 8333 3113 8331 3112 8332 3110 8332
      3108 8330 3104 8328 3102 8328 3092 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 256DEG 2KT 3098 8350

JLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
650 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

GAZ146-147-012330-
COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-
650 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COOK AND
NORTHEASTERN COLQUITT COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 650 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPARKS...OR NEAR ADEL...MOVING WEST AT 10
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ADEL...SPARKS...LENOX...ELLENTON...LACONTE...COOK CO A/P...
BARNEYVILLE...FLAT FORD...COOL SPRING...WAGON WHEEL...REED BINGHAM
STATE PARK AND STAUNTON.

LAT...LON 3128 8342 3113 8342 3110 8364 3131 8363
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 092DEG 7KT 3120 8347

25-CAMP