Severe Thunderstorm Warning 451, NWS Tallahassee, FL

237 
WWUS52 KTAE 062034
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015

ALC045-067-062044-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0451.000000T0000Z-150906T2100Z/
HENRY AL-DALE AL-
334 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL HENRY AND EASTERN
DALE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3159 8536 3148 8528 3127 8553 3152 8571
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 063DEG 15KT 3145 8545 

$$

15-HARRIGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
356 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A large upper low spins over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic this
afternoon. This broad and relatively weak synoptic forcing has been
enough to generate widespread showers and a few thunderstorms across
the region. Elsewhere a weak Atlantic seabreeze is setting a focus
for storms moving west across south Georgia and the Florida
peninsula. Overnight, the loss of instability will put an end to the
showers and storms, though the upper low will remain overhead.
Overnight low temperatures will drop into the lower 70s region-wide
tonight.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The broad 500 mb cutoff low, centered near Apalachicola Monday
morning, will continue to drift westward and begin to merge with a
mid latitude trough in the northwest Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night.
At the surface, an east-west oriented trough will develop across
north FL on Monday, then lift slowly northward on Tuesday. Low
layer convergence along this feature, coupled with increasing deep
layer moisture, will keep our rain chances quite high through the
period. Peak PoPs will generally range from 40-60% each day.
Because of some synoptic scale forcing, scattered showers and
thunderstorms may linger overnight as well, especially Monday
night. While lows will remain above climo levels (lower to mid
70s), highs will "only" be around average (upper 80s), due to
above-normal clouds and showers.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Our forecast area will be under deep, moist southwest flow for
much of this period, with a broad, positive tilt 500 mb trough
over the central Gulf Coast and the surface Bermuda ridge across
south FL. The peak 12-hour PoPs will be around 40%. Highs will be
in the upper 80s and lows in the 70s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Monday] VFR will prevail through the TAF. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will impact ABY, DHN, and ECP through the
afternoon, with a lesser chance at TLH and VLD. Late tonight low
cigs may reach ABY and VLD, but confidence is too low at this time
to include in the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

With higher pressure to the north and east, winds will be mainly
from the east or northeast less than 15 knots through Monday.
Winds will veer to the south Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected through the forecast period.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall amounts will average less than an inch across the region
through Tuesday, but of course, locally higher amounts are
possible, which could cause localized flooding of low-lying,
poor-drainage areas. Otherwise, our rivers remained below their
local action stages, which is likely to continue for at least the
next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  88  73  88  74 /  10  50  40  60  30
Panama City   73  87  74  86  76 /  20  40  40  50  30
Dothan        70  89  71  88  72 /  10  40  30  50  30
Albany        71  88  71  88  73 /  10  50  30  50  30
Valdosta      71  88  72  89  74 /  10  50  40  60  30
Cross City    73  88  73  89  75 /  20  60  40  60  30
Apalachicola  73  86  75  87  77 /  40  60  50  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
124 PM EDT SUN SEP 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     WATER SPOUT      5 S PANAMA CITY BEACH   30.14N 85.86W
09/06/2015                   GMZ750             FL   PUBLIC

            WATERSPOUT REPORTED OFFSHORE OF THE 16000 BLOCK OF FRONT
            BEACH ROAD. PICTURES ALSO VIEWED ON SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

DVD