Severe Thunderstorm Warning 444, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
327 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms may linger into the early
evening hours. These storms will be isolated. Overnight, rain
chances will dwindle. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A broad, east-west oriented 500 mb trough will develop across the
western Atlantic and Southeast. At the surface, a weak "backdoor"
cold front will translate southward Saturday and Sunday as a wedge
of high pressure builds southward along the Piedmont. With little
Q-G forcing expected on Friday, the driving force behind any
shower and thunderstorm development will be the sea breeze front.
The FL Big Bend front will be slow to move inland due to opposing
1000-700 mb winds, and the highest PoP will be around 40% across
the FL Big Bend and north FL. Elsewhere the PoP will be 30%. PoPs
will increase into the 50-60% range this weekend with the arriving
cold front. Highs will be above average Friday, in the mid 90s,
then a little "cooler" Saturday, in the lower 90s. Lows will
remain in the 70s.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The aforementioned 500 mb trough will become cut off from the mid
latitude westerlies, then gradually become oriented north-south as
it translates slowly to the west along the Gulf Coast. At the
surface, the aforementioned cold front will stall across the
northern Gulf of Mexico and north FL into early next week as it
gradually dissipates. With the mean east-northeast flow from 1000-
700 mb through Monday, the highest PoPs will come late in the
afternoon or evening as convection associated with the FL/GA east
coast sea breeze front arrives. The flow will become southerly by
mid week, resulting in a more normal progression of the FL Big Bend
and Panhandle sea breezes. PoPs in FL will be slightly above climo,
generally around 40% each day. Elsewhere, where the boundary layer
is a little drier, PoPs will be around 30%. Temperatures will be
near climo, around 90 in the day and in the 70s at night.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday] VFR will prevail at all terminals. There is
a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening,
mainly along the seabreeze boundary. However, showers and
thunderstorms will be isolated in coverage and therefore were not
put into the TAFs. Winds will be light and northwesterly.

&&

.Marine...

With a weak pressure gradient across much of the Southeast, winds
will be relatively light from the west or northwest through Friday.
Winds will gradually transition to the east or northeast this
weekend as a weak cold front passes slowly through the region from
north to south.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Area rivers remained below their local action stages this afternoon,
and this is likely to continue for the next several days in the
absence of organized heavy rain.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  95  74  92  73 /  20  40  20  60  40
Panama City   78  89  77  88  75 /  20  30  20  40  40
Dothan        73  94  73  93  71 /  20  30  20  40  30
Albany        73  94  73  92  72 /  20  30  30  50  30
Valdosta      73  94  72  92  71 /  20  40  30  60  30
Cross City    75  93  74  91  73 /  20  40  30  60  40
Apalachicola  77  91  77  89  75 /  20  30  20  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER