Severe Thunderstorm Warning 437, NWS Tallahassee, FL

300 
WWUS52 KTAE 252044
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
444 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

FLC065-073-129-252054-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0437.000000T0000Z-150825T2100Z/
JEFFERSON FL-WAKULLA FL-LEON FL-
444 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...
NORTHEASTERN WAKULLA AND SOUTHEASTERN LEON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3013 8417 3027 8429 3043 8413 3021 8395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 234DEG 4KT 3026 8414 

$$

9-FOURNIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 1 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front extending
southwestward from a weak frontal wave along the SC-GA border,
through Albany, GA, through just west of Quincy, FL, then west-
southwestward to the LA coast. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a long wave trough over much of the eastern CONUS, with an
upper level +PV anomaly over central MS & AL. This short wave will
translate through our region later tonight, as will the surface cold
front.

Until this front moves through, there will be ample potential energy
for scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, mainly along
and south of a line from Tallahassee to Valdosta. This will likely
occur as the synoptic cold front interacts with the FL Big Bend sea
breeze front, which was just beginning to develop at the coast.

With MLCAPE values around 3,000 J/Kg ahead of the front, dry air
aloft, and relatively steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, there could be a
few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms through early this
evening. The limiting factor, which could also limit the overall
storm coverage, is some residual dry air in the mid troposphere,
which could get entrained into the moist updrafts and weaken them
considerably.

Later tonight dewpoints will drop to below average, in the mid 50s
to lower 60s across much of our region. Skies will clear and lows
will dip into the 60s for a much-welcomed preview of autumn.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A deep trough over the east coast will begin to break
down and move off shore on Thursday. With much direr air in place,
PoPs will be limited to 20% in the Big Bend and south central
Georgia for the short term period. Dewpoints will drop into the 50s
for much of the area on Wednesday. While highs will still be in the
lower 90s, the apparent temperature will be much lower than we have
seen over the last week. Lows will be in the 60s on Wednesday night,
even dropping to the low 60s for southeast Alabama and the
western Panhandle.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

As surface high pressure over the north east moves off shore, winds
will become southerly and bring more moisture in from the Gulf. PoPs
will increase to the 20 to 50 percent range for the weekend.
After the nice tease of early fall with drier air, dewpoints will
increase starting on Friday. Highs will be in the lower 90s and
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] We expect a period of low cigs/Vis and gusty
winds at or around KTLH and KVLD through 22z. Otherwise, we expect
VFR conditions through the period as much drier air moves into the
region from the northwest.

&&

.Marine...

Elevated winds associated with a dry cold front will continue
through Wednesday. Starting Wednesday night winds and seas will
generally be light.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A drier airmass will filter in behind a cold front with minimum
relative humidities dropping to around 30 percent in some areas
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...

With all rivers below flood stage and significant rain not
expected, there are no hydrology concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  93  66  94  71 /  20   0  10  10  10
Panama City   71  86  69  86  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
Dothan        62  89  64  91  69 /   0   0  10   0  10
Albany        64  91  64  93  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
Valdosta      69  90  66  92  72 /  30  10  10  20  10
Cross City    74  91  73  90  74 /  10  20  20  20  20
Apalachicola  72  91  70  89  74 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON