Severe Thunderstorm Warning 431, NWS Tallahassee, FL

872 
WWUS52 KTAE 202206
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
606 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

GAC087-131-202216-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0431.000000T0000Z-150820T2230Z/
GRADY GA-DECATUR GA-
606 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRADY AND
SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3084 8420 3069 8441 3069 8450 3085 8459
      3093 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 306DEG 7KT 3081 8440 

$$

08-LAMERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Most convection will diminish shortly after sunset. Kept chance PoPs
for northern third of CWA and slight chance elsewhere until 06z. Min
temps will be in the mid 70s.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
High pressure aloft will begin to build westward over the Gulf of
Mexico during the short term period. While the ridge will not
quite be established over the region until Saturday, expect there
to be less convection on Friday than previous days with rain
chances mainly in the 40 to 50 percent range. By Saturday as the
ridge becomes more established, expect rain to be tougher to come
by, with rain chances dropping back to around 30 percent.

The big story in the short term will be warmer than normal
temperatures with highs on Friday getting back up into the mid 90s
and then the upper 90s on Saturday. Heat indices may become an
issue by the weekend with max values in the afternoon hours of 106
to 109 degrees possible.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The pattern will begin to transition on Sunday as the high
pressure weakens over our area as a large ridge builds over the
Western CONUS and a trough drops into the Ohio River Valley. The
models have been going back and forth on whether a cold front
would end up making it all the way into the forecast area by
Tuesday. The 20/12z GFS suggests a boundary would get close,
though the 20/12z Euro makes a little further southward progress
and ultimately does bring a fair amount of dry air into the region
Tue-Thurs resulting in well below normal PoPs.

Temperatures for the first half of the long term period will be
above normal, with highs in the mid 90s. With the potential of a
frontal passage by Wednesday, high temperatures may drop back to
near 90.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] VFR will prevail outside of convection until
around 09-10z when some restrictions to cigs/vsbys will once again
be possible, especially at DHN, ABY and VLD.

&&

.Marine...
The pressure gradient will be very weak through Friday, with
generally light onshore winds and low seas. West to northwest
winds around 10 kt are expected this weekend, as the surface high
pressure center moves west of our area.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected with relative humidity
remaining fairly high. Daytime dispersions may be somewhat low
over the next couple of days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rain chances will be on the decline into the weekend. Isolated
heavy rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches is possible on Friday
afternoon, though this is unlikely to cause any flood concerns.
Drier conditions from Saturday and into much of next week will
prevent any flood concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  95  76  96  76 /  20  50  20  30  20
Panama City   78  90  78  90  79 /  20  50  20  30  20
Dothan        73  93  74  95  75 /  30  50  20  30  10
Albany        74  94  74  95  75 /  30  40  20  30  10
Valdosta      74  96  75  97  75 /  20  50  20  30  20
Cross City    76  94  76  95  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
Apalachicola  79  89  77  90  79 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY