Severe Thunderstorm Warning 426, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Regional WV imagery depicts a well defined +PV anomaly moving
through the base of the eastern CONUS trough, into the Mid-Atlantic.
At the surface, an 18z analysis depicted a couple of troughs draped
through northern and central GA and AL, associated with the upper
level feature.

Scattered convection has been forming along, and moving southeast
off of these two troughs. So far, this has only impacted the
northern tier of our GA and AL counties. Elsewhere, isolated storms
have developed across the Panhandle and Big Bend seabreezes. Expect
a continued inland motion wrt seabreeze storms, while storms from
the north continue to drop into the Tri-State region. Eventually,
much of the local area will see at least a brief shower. There
remains a low-end threat for an isolated strong to severe storm,
with the primary threat being damaging winds.

Overnight lows will only fall into the middle 70s area-wide.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

In the upper levels, the trough over the east coast will deepen
sending the surface front through our CWA on Wednesday. This
boundary will interact with the sea breeze resulting in numerous
showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Florida zones by
afternoon. Convection will be more scattered across our AL and GA
zones as a drier airmass will be filtering in from the north. As the
upper trough continues to dig, the surface boundary along with the
deep layer moisture is forecast to slip to our south by Thursday.
However, both the GFS and 00z ECMWF show a weak area of low pressure
developing over or near our easternmost zones Thursday and
retrograding to our western zones by evening. Pops on Thursday will
be tapered silent 10% northwest to good chance (50%) for Dixie
County. Highs will reach the lower to mid 90s inland areas both
days. With a drier airmass moving in, low temps may dip into the
upper 60s in SE AL and SW GA by Thursday morning.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Weak upper troughing will prevail over the local area for most of
the extended period with an upper low possibly closing off along the
central Gulf coast late in the weekend. Time height cross sections
and forecast soundings show plenty of mid to upper level dry air in
place for Friday and Saturday before the deep layer moisture and
thus better chances for convection return Sunday into early next
week. Temperatures throughout the period should end up being near
or just below seasonal levels.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR will prevail through the remainder of the
day. Patchy areas of fog are likely in the morning, but confidence
in where the fog will form remains too low to include in the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

Moderate west winds will veer to the northwest by Wednesday night
as a weak front pushes south across the local waters. Winds will
weaken and swing around to the south by Thursday and remain light
and onshore with low seas at least through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.
Showers and thunderstorms will be fairly numerous across the Florida
zones on Wednesday.

&&

.Hydrology...

With a frontal boundary moving into the region today, some
enhancement to showers and thunderstorms are expected. Model
guidance suggests that areal average rainfall of 0.75 to 1.5
inches with locally heavier amounts is expected over the next 24
hours. Though minor flooding in urban areas can't be completely
ruled out, the overall flood threat with this system remains low.

With the forecast rainfall totals, no river flooding is expected
with this system.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  94  72  94  73 /  30  80  30  30  20
Panama City   79  88  75  90  77 /  30  70  30  20  20
Dothan        75  94  69  95  72 /  30  30  20  10  10
Albany        74  94  69  95  72 /  40  20  20  20  10
Valdosta      75  94  72  95  72 /  50  60  30  40  20
Cross City    77  92  73  92  73 /  20  70  40  50  40
Apalachicola  80  88  76  89  77 /  30  60  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY