Severe Thunderstorm Warning 418, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A 16Z analysis shows the surface front across the southern half of
Alabama and Georgia. Thunderstorms are already firing along a
surface trough  that stretches from Perry to southeastern Georgia.
There is also a cluster of storms in southern Alabama that is moving
to the southeast. With wind shear values higher than normal for
summer, we still expect some strong to severe storms through this
evening. The PoP coverage for tonight will range from 20 to 40% with
the highest chances in the western part of our area. Lows tonight
will be in the mid 70s.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

In the upper levels, a trough is just off of the Atlantic Coast
and a ridge is building in from the west. At the sfc, low pressure
will be just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with a cool front moving
through the region on Saturday morning. On Saturday afternoon, the
best chance for rain and thunder will be in the southern half of
the region (POPs around 30 percent) particularly near the coast as
the cool front stalls just south of the region. On Sunday, expect
isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly along the seabreeze
boundary as the front moves out of the region. Highs will be in
the mid 90s on Saturday and upper 90s on Sunday. Heat indices will
range from 100 to 105 degrees on Saturday and 105 to 110 degrees
on Sunday. Lows will be in the mid 70s.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

In the upper levels, ridging will be in place early in the
workweek. By Wednesday, a trough will dig into the region from the
north. At the sfc, features will be weak until Tuesday when
another slow-moving cool front will approach the region and move
through on Wednesday. On Monday, a more typical summertime pattern
will bring typical afternoon showers and thunderstorms. On Tuesday
and Wednesday, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will
increase as the cool front approaches and moves through. The best
chance for rain will be Wednesday afternoon and evening
particularly in the Florida Big Bend area. Increased rain chances
will linger in the Big Bend area on Thursday and Friday as the
front stalls south of the region. On Monday and Tuesday, highs
will be in mid 90s with heat indices ranging from 103 to 110
degrees. By Wednesday, highs will be in the low 90s. By Thursday,
drier air will move in bringing some relief to the heat.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Thunderstorms are expected at all terminals this afternoon and
evening. TLH, ABY and VLD already have MVFR cloud decks. Included
tempo groups for gusty winds and reduced visibilites.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will be westerly 15 to 20 knots overnight. Late Saturday
morning winds will subside to around 15 knots and decrease further
after sunset. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet through Saturday eveining.
Light winds and lower seas will be in place by Sunday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hot and humid conditions with chances for showers and thunderstorms
will prevent any fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
region this evening. With most area rivers at normal or below
normal levels, widespread river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  96  76  98  77 /  30  30  10  30  20
Panama City   81  91  77  91  80 /  40  30  10  30  20
Dothan        75  96  76  98  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
Albany        74  96  75  97  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
Valdosta      74  96  75  97  75 /  20  20  10  30  20
Cross City    77  92  75  94  76 /  40  30  30  40  20
Apalachicola  80  90  77  90  79 /  40  30  10  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
534 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE DONALSONVILLE     30.97N 84.86W
08/07/2015                   SEMINOLE           GA   911 CALL CENTER

             SHED DESTORYED NEAR HIGHWAY 285 EAST OF HIGHWAY 39.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
557 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E VALDOSTA            30.84N 83.22W
08/07/2015                   LOWNDES            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE RESIDENCE HAD 6 TO 7 TREES BLOWN DOWN AND MANY
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF ROOF.

&&

MCDERMOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
652 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DOUGLASS CROSSROADS     30.69N 85.98W
08/07/2015                   WALTON             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE AND POWERLINE DOWN IN DOUGLASS CROSSROADS.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
654 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VALDOSTA                30.85N 83.28W
08/07/2015                   LOWNDES            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            60 REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN VALDOSTA AND
            SOUTHERN LOWNDES COUNTY.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
706 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S CHATTAHOOCHEE       30.63N 84.85W
08/07/2015                   GADSDEN            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN THE WESTBOUND LANE OF I-10

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOODVILLE               30.31N 84.25W
08/07/2015                   LEON               FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FHP REPORTS TREE IN THE ROAD AT NATURAL BRIDGE ROAD AND
            WOODVILLE HIGHWAY

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
723 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW MORVEN             30.90N 83.54W
08/07/2015                   BROOKS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG JACKSON ROAD

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORVEN                  30.94N 83.50W
08/07/2015                   BROOKS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN NEAR MORVEN

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     QUITMAN                 30.79N 83.56W
08/07/2015                   BROOKS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN NEAR QUITMAN

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E EMPRESS             30.67N 83.54W
08/07/2015                   BROOKS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON UNION CHURCH ROAD

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE QUITMAN           30.73N 83.52W
08/07/2015                   BROOKS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON OLD MADISON ROAD

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BARNEY                  31.01N 83.52W
08/07/2015                   BROOKS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 122 AND 76

&&

DVD