Severe Thunderstorm Warning 362, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
408 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Convective development is underway this afternoon and the widespread
coverage of storms that has been advertised appears to be panning
out. The storms will persist into the evening hours with isolated
wet microbursts producing damaging wind gusts in a few spots as on
most other days this month.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A weak cold front, currently across northern AL and central GA,
will translate slowly south through our forecast area Saturday and
Saturday night, then stall across north-central FL on Sunday. The
various sets of MOS and ECAM PoPs are in good agreement in high
rain chances for Saturday afternoon across FL (60-80%), with
slightly lower PoPs in GA and AL. Much drier air, especially in
the mid to upper troposphere, will develop across our forecast
area Sunday, with PoPs ranging from 10% in AL and GA to 30% around
Cross City. Highs this weekend will be in the mid 90s and lows
will be in the 70s, despite the passage of a "cold" front.
However, slightly lower dewpoints will limit heat index values to
100 F or less for a change on Sunday.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

The GFS and ECMWF begin the period in decent agreement, with
generally dry, deep layer northerly flow between a 500 mb high
centered over NM and a low off the Southeast coast. This would
indicate below-climo PoPs and warm daytime temperatures. By mid to
late week the models diverge, with the drier ECMWF maintaining the
status quo, and the GFS forecasting a return of deep layer
moisture and a developing low-layer convergence zone across our
region. Our forecast is a blend of the two solutions, with near-
climo PoPs and temperatures mid to late next week.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail outside of
thunderstorms. Any storm that develops could briefly lower ceiling
and visibility to IFR and be accompanied by gusty winds over 30
knots. MVFR visibility will be possible from 09-13Z at ABY and
VLD.

&&

.Marine...

West winds will remain at "exercise caution" levels through
tonight as a cold front approaches from the north. Winds will
gradually weaken and veer to the north and northeast Saturday
through Sunday as the front passes through the marine area.

&&

.Fire Weather...

There are no other fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

There was a sharp rise on the Shoal River at Mossy Head overnight,
but the river appears to be falling below action stage this
afternoon. Otherwise, the rivers were below their local action
stages, and this is likely to continue for the next several days.
Tthere is a 10% chance of 6+ inches of rain (within 25 miles of a
point) across North FL through Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  93  73  95  74 /  50  70  50  20  10
Panama City   79  89  77  90  77 /  50  60  50  20  10
Dothan        74  93  73  94  73 /  40  40  20  10  10
Albany        74  94  73  94  72 /  40  30  10  10  10
Valdosta      74  93  71  94  71 /  50  50  10  20  10
Cross City    75  91  72  92  73 /  60  80  40  40  20
Apalachicola  79  90  76  90  77 /  60  70  50  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight FOR
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

ALZ069-242100-
HOUSTON AL-
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 318 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DOTHAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COTTONWOOD...DOTHAN...TAYLOR...COWARTS...WEBB...KINSEY AND KELLY SPRINGS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8512 3100 8543 3128 8547 3129 8545
      3129 8542 3130 8542 3131 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 336DEG 25KT 3124 8541

38-GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
556 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE DOTHAN            31.19N 85.37W
07/24/2015                   HOUSTON            AL   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE SNAPPED IN HALF NEAR ROSS CLARK CIRCLE. PHOTO
            VIEWED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

HARRIGAN