Severe Thunderstorm Warning 355, NWS Tallahassee, FL

206 
WWUS52 KTAE 241944
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
244 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

ALC045-242000-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0355.000000T0000Z-150724T2000Z/
DALE AL-
244 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL DALE COUNTY...

AT 243 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER OZARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OZARK...FORT RUCKER...NEWTON...PINCKARD...AND HUNT FIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3148 8572 3153 8559 3142 8543 3129 8561
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 319DEG 24KT 3145 8561 

$$

38-GODSEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
952 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 12Z KTAE sounding confirms a northwesterly flow regime with a
very moist column. The PW is well above normal at 2.15 inches.
Surface analysis shows a cold front neat Atlanta. This front will
continue to slip south toward the forecast area today, possibly
reaching into our northern zones. The latest CAM guidance suggests
this could limit afternoon convective coverage across our
northeastern zones below what we have been advertising and we made
a slight adjustment there. The main message today is that
convective coverage will be high. Once again, we will be faced
with a threat of isolated wet microbursts that could prompt
warnings for damaging straight-line winds. SPC has us in a
marginal risk for severe. The one bit of good news is that the
increased cloud cover and thunderstorms coverage could keep temps
from getting quite as high as recent days. TLH has peaked at 98 or
99 degrees each of the past 7 days and we are forecasting 94
today. We also may manage to get by without a heat advisory as max
apparent temps will "only" be around 105.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] Once IFR ceilings lift at ABY, VFR
conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. Any storm that
develops could briefly lower ceiling and visibility to IFR and be
accompanied by gusty winds. over 30 knots. MVFR visibility will be
possible toward the end of the period after 09Z.

&&

.Prev Discussion [415 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

In the upper levels, there is a ridge centered over the Southern
Great Plains and a trough extending down the east coast. At the
sfc, low pressure will linger just to the east. On Saturday, a
cool front will move through bringing increased chances for rain
and thunderstorms. By Sunday, this boundary will be south of the
region and drier air will be moving in from the north confining
rain chances mainly to the eastern Big Bend. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 90s on Saturday and in the low to mid 90s on Sunday.
Saturday, will be humid with heat indices in the 100 to 110 degree
range. On Sunday, the drier air will keep heat indices around 100.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

In the upper levels, a high height center will be centered over
TX and a closed low will be forming over FL. At the sfc, a low
lingering around central FL will drift into northeast FL by
Wednesday. Early in the week, the region will be in the dry slot
behind the low. Some moisture around the low may creep in mid to
late week, as the low moves closer. The best chance for rain will
be in the eastern counties in FL and the southeastern counties in
GA, particularly on Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon highs will
be in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices are expected to be around
100 degrees on Monday and Tuesday and will increase slightly as
the week progresses.

.Marine...

Today and tonight winds will be westerly at 15 to 20 knots.
Small craft operators should exercise caution. On Saturday, winds
will be a little lighter around 15 knots. Expect seas of 3 to 5 feet
today. An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the
weekend, bringing increased chances for rain and thunderstorms. Some
storms will have gusty winds and frequent lightning.

.Fire Weather...

Other than possible high dispersion values on Saturday, there are no
other fire weather concerns.

.Hydrology...

There's some potential for heavy rainfall across the region on
today ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, with the greatest
threat focused into the Southeast Florida Big Bend. Only the
Steinhatchee River is running above normal at this time. With
widespread 1.5 to 3 inches of rain expected over the next 48
hours, only modest rises are anticipated on the smaller rivers in
the SE Florida Big Bend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  76  94  75  95 /  80  50  50  20  20
Panama City   91  79  92  78  91 /  70  50  40  20  20
Dothan        93  75  97  75  95 /  60  40  30  10  10
Albany        94  75  97  74  95 /  70  50  30  10  10
Valdosta      93  75  93  73  94 /  80  50  50  20  20
Cross City    90  77  92  74  91 /  80  60  70  30  40
Apalachicola  90  80  90  77  89 /  80  50  50  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY