Severe Thunderstorm Warning 311, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Convective activity is expected to increase this afternoon across
the CWA and with SB CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG and a
gradient of DCAPE in excess of 800 J/KG, the threat of severe
weather including damaging wind exists through the evening. Once
again the potential also exists for locally heavy rainfall so will
need to keep a close eye on the flood threat.

A shortwave will track across the TN valley tonight and while the
bulk of the effects remain north of the CWA, guidance is hinting it
could help to increase the cloud coverage across parts of SW Georgia
late tonight. In addition, there is more of a suggestion for tonight
in the hi-res guidance of activity across the northern part of the
CWA late tonight - either a line of thunderstorms weakening as they
approach the CWA from the north or development of a few showers and
thunderstorms across the northern half late tonight. Based on this
have kept PoPs in across the whole CWA all night, but the highest
PoPs across the marine zones for the the second half of tonight.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

A ridge of high pressure will rest aloft over the southern states
through the period, with our forecast area resting on the eastern
edge. To the north, a fairly strong +PV anomaly for this time of
year will churn over southeastern Canada, pushing an upper level jet
across the Great Lakes and northeastern states. A surface trough
that's been enhanced by the upper level divergence from this impulse
will cross the southeastern states Tuesday and Wednesday. Low
level flow from the south-southwest will keep Gulf moisture
plentiful, with model PWATs are around 2", and instability will
be accessible with model CAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg both Tuesday
and Wednesday. With this forcing, moisture, and instability
present, we're expecting active days with convection across our
area. PoPs are around 60% during the daytime hours, and 20-30%
overnight, higher along the coastline and offshore waters. As is
typical this time of year, some of these storms are expected to
become strong enough to produce downbursts of damaging winds.
Highs will peak in the low-mid 90s during the day and fall to the
mid 70s overnight.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

On Thursday night, a weak area of low pressure over the Carolina's
will begin to move off eastward into the Atlantic. A frontal
boundary located north of our CWA will gradually dip southward
toward the Gulf coast causing higher chances for rain for the end of
the week. On Sunday, the drier air from behind the front will begin
to affect our area and lower rain chances above the Florida state
border. With an abundance of low level moisture through Saturday,
PoPs are kept on the higher side of 40-60% with the greatest chance
for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs will be in the
low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail outside of
thunderstorms today. The best chance for storms appear to be at ABY
and DHN. Overnight, expect some patchy IFR ceilings and visibilities
in areas where rain falls this afternoon. At this time it is too
uncertain to include in the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

High pressure will rest over the Gulf with low pressure systems
moving through to the north causing a tight pressure gradient
through the weekend. Winds will generally be from the southwest or
west and around 10-15 knots, with higher winds during thunderstorms.
Seas will generally be around 2-3 feet.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected. Dispersion
values will be a bit higher than average during the overnight hours
due to an increase in transport winds.

&&

.Hydrology...

An active pattern will remain in place for the area through the
weekend with rainfall totals over the next 5 days around 2". Since
our area rivers are at normal or even low flow levels, this is not
expected to cause any widespread flooding. However, depending on how
storms develop, there may be enhanced chances for localized
flooding, particularly in the Florida Big Bend where we've already
seen several days with higher rainfall totals over the past week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  93  76  93  76 /  40  60  30  60  30
Panama City   79  89  80  89  80 /  30  50  30  60  30
Dothan        75  95  75  94  75 /  40  60  20  50  30
Albany        77  94  75  95  75 /  40  50  20  50  20
Valdosta      75  93  75  94  76 /  30  60  20  60  30
Cross City    76  90  76  91  77 /  40  50  30  60  30
Apalachicola  79  87  80  89  80 /  30  50  30  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK through late tonight FOR Coastal Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE/CHANEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...MOORE FIRE
WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW SAINT MARKS        30.21N 84.27W
07/19/2015                   WAKULLA            FL   PUBLIC

            TWO TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON SHADEVILLE ROAD DURING THE
            STORM SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
620 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E WEBB                31.26N 85.21W
07/20/2015                   HOUSTON            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON CEDAR SPRINGS ROAD

&&

DVD