Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Although there is some weakening in the upper level ridge, the CWA
still remains on the eastern side of this upper level ridge through
the near term. The hot temperatures continue and this combined with
the high dewpoints have allowed for heat index values in excess of
110 this afternoon. Will continue the heat advisory into this
evening and folks outside need to exercise caution and follow heat
safety rules.

Besides the heat, SB CAPE values range from 3000-4000 J/KG across
the CWA and thus there is plenty of instability in place to allow
for severe storms this afternoon. The main threat will be damaging
wind. Overall the hi-res models persist the thunderstorms over the
land into tonight, but diminish them for the second half of tonight.
There are a few exceptions though with one hi-res model and the NAM
showing an active pattern for the second half of the night. Have
gone with consensus though and am closer to the ECAM in the PoP
trend for tonight - inland storms initially diminishing with
activity increasing along the coast and marine areas by sunrise.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
A stretch of unsettled weather is likely to begin during the short
term period with our region located in a weakness between a ridge
to the west and east. As deep layer moisture increases on Tuesday,
expect good coverage of showers and storms. Model guidance is a
bit split on how much coverage, but there is reasonable agreement
that it should be a little drier to the north. As a result, have
the highest PoP values across North Florida through the short term
period. With more widespread convection expected, should finally
see a break in the heat with temperatures returning to the lower
90s during the afternoon.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
A surface trough will develop into a weak area of low pressure over
the eastern portions of our CWA on Wednesday and remain there
throughout the week. A frontal boundary will stall just north of
our CWA causing higher chances for rain this coming week. On
Saturday, the front is expected to dip south toward the Gulf coast
keeping the highest PoPs to Northern FL. With an abundance of low
level moisture, PoPs are kept on the higher side of 45-65% with
the greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. With a higher chance for convection, highs will be in
the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] Thunderstorms will fill in across the area this
afternoon, with gusty winds and lower vsbys expected when storms are
directly impacting the terminals. After storms dissipate in the
evening, some patchy fog development will be possible near DHN, ABY,
and VLD in the late night-early morning hours which should dissipate
shortly after sunrise.

&&

.Marine...
Light southwesterly winds will increase to moderate levels on
Tuesday and continue through the week as a period of unsettled
conditions develop over the marine area.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Humid conditions and increasing rain chances will preclude any fire
weather concerns this week, which is typical throughout the summer.

&&

.Hydrology...
Modest rises on area rivers and streams from rainfall earlier this
week have tapered off with all locations well below action stages.
A stretch of active weather looks to be developing, starting
Monday and continuing through at least Thursday. Precipitable
water values exceed 2 inches by Tuesday, and with weak steering
flow in place, expect some storms to produce very heavy rainfall,
which could cause some localized flooding, particularly if these
heavier amounts fall in an urbanized area.

Area streamflows are slightly below normal for this time of year
across the region, especially within the main stem river systems,
suggesting there's some storage capacity to handle some heavy
rainfall. Thus, the potential for river flooding is on the low
side with this storm system.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  91  76  91  77 /  40  70  30  70  30
Panama City   78  87  78  88  81 /  30  60  30  70  30
Dothan        75  94  75  95  75 /  30  50  30  60  30
Albany        76  94  76  93  74 /  30  50  30  50  20
Valdosta      75  91  75  92  75 /  40  70  30  70  30
Cross City    76  90  76  90  77 /  40  50  30  70  30
Apalachicola  78  86  79  86  80 /  30  60  30  70  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...JLF
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
448 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MALONE                  30.96N 85.16W
07/19/2015                   JACKSON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
450 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARIANNA                30.77N 85.24W
07/19/2015                   JACKSON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
451 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DELLWOOD                30.82N 85.05W
07/19/2015                   JACKSON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
524 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KINARD                  30.27N 85.24W
07/19/2015                   CALHOUN            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
            PORTIONS OF CALHOUN COUNTY.

&&

GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
526 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE MAYO JUNCTION     30.05N 83.17W
07/19/2015                   LAFAYETTE          FL   911 CALL CENTER

            POWERLINE DOWN ON DEES COURT.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE NEWTON             31.37N 85.56W
07/19/2015                   DALE               AL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON US HIGHWAY 231.

&&

GODSEY