Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Tallahassee, FL

018 
WWUS52 KTAE 190104
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
804 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

ALC045-067-190130-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0295.000000T0000Z-150719T0130Z/
DALE AL-HENRY AL-
804 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DALE AND NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES...

AT 804 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR TEXASVILLE...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ABBEVILLE...NEWVILLE...SCOTTSBORO CROSSROADS...SKIPPERVILLE...BELLS
CROSSROADS...MURPHY STATION...ROBERTS CROSSROADS...ARGUTA...
GRABALL...BEAMON...BAREFIELD CROSSROADS...DYKES CROSSROADS...
CLOPTON...ECHO...SNELLS CROSSROADS...BERTHA...EDWIN...
LAWRENCEVILLE...WARD BRIDGE AND CAPPS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3151 8565 3162 8558 3162 8542 3171 8542
      3170 8522 3170 8521 3140 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 029DEG 19KT 3162 8540 

$$

42-DVD

893 
WWUS52 KTAE 190113
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
813 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

ALC045-067-190130-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0295.000000T0000Z-150719T0130Z/
DALE AL-HENRY AL-
813 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DALE AND WEST CENTRAL HENRY COUNTIES...

AT 813 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BLUE SPRINGS STATE PARK...OR 10 MILES WEST OF
ABBEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAREFIELD CROSSROADS...CLOPTON...SKIPPERVILLE...BELLS CROSSROADS...
SNELLS CROSSROADS...ECHO...ROBERTS CROSSROADS...BERTHA...BEAMON AND
WARD BRIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3149 8561 3162 8553 3162 8541 3161 8528
      3140 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 033DEG 18KT 3159 8543 

$$

42-DVD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
809 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Isolated convection this evening is gradually weakening. Overnight
lows are expected to range generally from the mid 70s inland to
upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00z Monday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail,
although some MVFR to IFR conditions are possible late tonight,
mainly at VLD. Convection is expected to be more widespread on
Sunday afternoon with a few stronger storms possible.

&&

.Prev Discussion [414 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Ridging across the Western Gulf will weaken and shift further west
in Texas by Monday. Model guidance continues to suggest that we
will see increasing storm coverage over the next couple of
afternoons. In fact, the hi-resolution model output for Sunday
afternoon is quite active across the region. For now, have trended
PoPs up about 10 percent from the previous forecast. On Monday, with
our region located in a weakness between the ridge to the west and
the subtropical ridge to the east, expect numerous showers and
storms to develop in the afternoon hours. Expect one more hot day
on Sunday with temperatures in the upper 90s across inland areas.
By Monday, with an early start to convection expected,
temperatures should be a bit cooler, with in the low to mid 90s.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
A surface trough will make its way from the Ohio Valley to the
eastern portions of our CWA and develop a weak area of low pressure
on Thursday. At the same time, frontal boundary will move south and
stall just north of our CWA causing higher chances for rain this
coming week. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
possible throughout the area with the highest PoPs in the eastern
part of the region. Precipitable water values exceed 2 inches by
Tuesday, which is well above normal for late July. With weak
steering flow in place, expect some storms to produce very heavy
rainfall, which could cause some localized flooding, particularly
if these heavier amounts fall in an urbanized area. With more
convection expected in the coming week, afternoon highs will be in
the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.

.Marine...
Expect light to moderate southwesterly flow to continue throughout
the period. While no headlines are anticipated for the upcoming
week, expect a stretch of stormy weather across the marine area
to begin by Tuesday and continue through much of the week.

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

.Hydrology...
Modest rises on area rivers and streams from rainfall earlier this
week have tapered off with all locations well below action stages.
A stretch of active weather looks to be developing, starting
Monday and continuing through at least Thursday. Precipitable
water values exceed 2 inches by Tuesday, and with weak steering
flow in place, expect some storms to produce very heavy rainfall,
which could cause some localized flooding, particularly if these
heavier amounts fall in an urbanized area.

Area streamflows are slightly below normal for this time of year
across the region, especially within the mainstem river systems,
suggesting there's some storage capacity to handle some heavy
rainfall. Thus, the potential for river flooding is on the low
side with this storm system.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  97  77  93  77 /  20  50  30  60  30
Panama City   79  91  77  89  81 /  20  30  30  50  30
Dothan        76  98  76  96  76 /  20  30  30  50  30
Albany        77  98  77  95  76 /  20  40  30  50  30
Valdosta      75  96  76  94  76 /  20  50  30  60  30
Cross City    75  93  76  90  77 /  30  40  30  60  30
Apalachicola  78  90  78  87  80 /  20  30  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY