Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Upper level high pressure sits over the southeastern states with a
weak +PV anomaly over the Great Lakes. At the lower levels, a
decaying surface front stretches across the Atlantic Ocean to near
the Georgia-South Carolina coastal border with a surface convergence
boundary oriented NE-SW across central Georgia, then bisecting Leon
and Wakulla county and curving westward along the north Florida
coastline. Additionally, the sea-breeze front has begun its
northward propagation along the Big Bend. These boundaries will keep
most of the convection today focused in our Florida and Georgia zones
this afternoon. With temperatures already in the mid 90s and
expected to rise into the upper 90s later this afternoon, the
airmass in place will be unstable enough to allow some of our
scattered convection to become severe and produce downbursts of
damaging wind gusts. Where it's not raining, hot temperatures and
high relative humidity will make for a muggy afternoon with heat
indices in the 100-110 range, so try to stay inside this afternoon
if you can. Overnight, thunderstorms will dissipate, though they may
linger into the early evening hours, especially in the eastern Big
Bend. Temperatures will only sink to the mid 70s, upper 70s along
the immediate coastline.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Ridging over the western Gulf will keep our region in a light
northerly flow regime through the short term period. This tends to
be a drier pattern with mainly scattered afternoon and evening
showers and storms focused more along the sea breeze fronts. With
the core of the ridge relatively close to the region, expect less
storm coverage on Saturday afternoon. By Sunday afternoon as the
ridge drifts further west, expect an increase in storm coverage,
particularly across the eastern areas.

Temperatures throughout the short term period will be on the hot
side. With the proximity of the ridge and less convective
activity, high temperatures will warm into the upper 90s to near
100 across the region on Saturday. Model guidance suggests
dewpoints should mix out into the upper 60s/near 70 away from the
coast in the afternoon keeping heat indices in the 106 to 108
degree range, just below heat advisory criteria.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
By Monday, the ridge across the Gulf Coast States will retreat
further westward as a trough moves through the Southern
Appalachians. This pattern will result in gradually increasing
coverage of showers and storms throughout the week during the
afternoon hours. Rain chances at least in the 40 to 50 percent
range are expected through the period. This increased convection
will help keep temperatures a little cooler than in the short term
period, with values generally in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday] Mostly VFR conditions today, with the
brief exception of storms directly affecting terminals and
lowering vsbys to MVFR levels. Overnight, another brief round of
MVFR vsbys will be possible at DHN and IFR-LIFR vsbys will be
possible once again at VLD.

&&

.Marine...
Seas will gradually diminish this evening as westerly winds
decrease. A return to typical summertime conditions are expected
for the weekend. A more unsettled pattern is expected by Monday
as shower and thunderstorm coverage increases.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Aside from some borderline high dispersion values across the Florida
panhandle on Saturday afternoon, there are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...
Localized heavy rainfall from the past couple of days in the
Florida Big Bend resulted in some minor rises on the Steinhatchee
River. With storm coverage on the lower side the next couple of
days, no flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  98  76  98  77 /  20  30  20  40  20
Panama City   79  94  79  95  80 /  20  30  20  30  20
Dothan        76 100  77  99  77 /  10  20  20  40  20
Albany        75 100  76  98  76 /  20  20  20  40  20
Valdosta      74  98  75  99  76 /  30  30  20  50  20
Cross City    74  95  75  94  76 /  50  50  20  40  20
Apalachicola  78  92  81  91  80 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight FOR
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Decatur-
     Early-Grady-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole.

AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY