Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
838 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

21Z REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA, CENTRAL GEORGIA, AND NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI INTO ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING AHEAD THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO FORM AND PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. MANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
EVENING, BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT WITH LATE NIGHT-
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG THE EASTERN
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S, NEAR 80 ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday] LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED THROUGH ABY AND
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. TEMPO GROUPS AT DHN, VLD AND TLH UNTIL 03Z
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.Prev Discussion [450 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY DOWN AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO STORMS FORMING SOUTH
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WE ALSO EXPECT STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

BY FRIDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DECAY, BUT THE
REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY. THEREFORE, CONVECTION
FRIDAY WILL BE FOCUSED MORE ALONG NORTH FLORIDA, WITH MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
AS THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INLAND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S, PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FRIDAY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, WHERE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LAY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD. BY MONDAY,
STACKED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SWINGING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POPS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FOR THE SUMMER, AROUND 40 PERCENT, WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
DURING THE DAY AND DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT NIGHT.

.Marine...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ONSHORE SURGES WITH THE SEABREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
COASTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2-4 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY...LOWERING TO 1-2 FEET
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.Fire Weather...

GUSTY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER DISPERSIONS IN THE
AFTERNOONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

.Hydrology...

RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING ALONG COASTAL BIG BEND AREAS WERE
AROUND 2-4", WITH PARTS OF COASTAL DIXIE COUNTY ACCUMULATING UP TO
AROUND 4-6". ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TOMORROW IN THIS
AREA, WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY AND TOMORROW, WHICH MAY ALSO CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. OTHERWISE, OUT AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW ACTION
STAGE AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MAIN STEM CONCERNS.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  94  76  95  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
Panama City   80  90  80  90  80 /  40  40  30  40  30
Dothan        76  95  76  97  76 /  60  30  20  30  20
Albany        75  95  75  96  75 /  60  30  20  30  20
Valdosta      76  94  74  95  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
Cross City    76  90  76  92  75 /  50  50  40  50  40
Apalachicola  80  91  81  92  79 /  30  40  30  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MOORE/CHANEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
809 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BEACHTON                30.73N 84.14W
07/15/2015                   GRADY              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN IN GRADY COUNTY.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
818 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W BLOCKER             30.59N 84.28W
07/15/2015                   LEON               FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT MERIDIAN RD AND BANNERMAN RD.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
833 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAIRO                   30.88N 84.21W
07/15/2015                   GRADY              GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN CAIRO.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
925 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE BLOCKER            30.57N 84.25W
07/15/2015                   LEON               FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT SHADY GROVE WAY AND APPLEWOOD WAY.

&&

EWESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
927 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE HIAMONEE           30.67N 84.26W
07/15/2015                   LEON               FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT COUNTY RD 12 AND MERIDIAN RD.

&&

EWESTON

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