Severe Thunderstorm Warning 270, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Thunderstorm coverage is widespread so far this afternoon. Expect
storms to linger into the night. With plenty of moisture and
sufficient instability, will keep PoPs above guidance again tonight,
around 20-40 percent. The  Tonight will feel muggy with temps and
dewpoints in the mid 70s.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

On Wednesday, the trough over the Atlantic Seaboard will begin to
move out into the Atlantic. By Thursday, the ridge to the west
will begin to move into the region. However, sfc features (weak
low pressure and cool/stationary boundaries) will still be present
to sustain the increased rain chances. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will be more numerous particularly along the
seabreeze. With instability already in place, a few severe
thunderstorms are likely with the main threat being damaging
winds. A cool front will likely move in bringing nocturnal
convection particularly near the coast for Wednesday night and
Thursday night. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat
indices in excess of 100 degrees.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

An upper level ridge will be over the region throughout most of
this forecast period. However, sfc features (weak low pressure and
cool/stationary boundaries) will still be present to sustain the
increased rain chances. The best chance for rain and thunderstorms
will be in the eastern and southeastern counties of Georgia and
Florida. Nocturnal convection is likely near the coast and over
the Gulf. Expect this wet pattern to continue into next week as
weak low pressure will linger at the sfc. This pattern will bring
some relief to the heat, particularly in the southeast portion of
the region where rain and clouds will prevail. Afternoon highs
will be in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions expected for most of the period with the exception
of IFR visibility in thunderstorms at TLH and VLD this afternoon.
Included VCTS for all terminals through this evening.

&&

.Marine...

Moderate southwesterly winds will increase to cautionary levels
by late Wednesday morning along with 3 to 4 foot seas. By Friday,
winds will become light to moderate again. An unsettled weather
pattern will be in place this week, bringing increased chances for
rain and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms will likely have very
gusty winds.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Area rivers remain below bankfull levels. Scattered showers and
storms are expected this week, but heavy rainfall should be
relatively localized. Flooding is not expected on any of the
larger area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  94  76  93  77 /  30  50  30  60  40
Panama City   81  90  79  90  80 /  30  30  30  50  40
Dothan        76  96  75  95  76 /  20  40  30  40  30
Albany        75  96  75  95  76 /  40  40  40  40  20
Valdosta      76  95  75  94  75 /  40  50  30  60  40
Cross City    76  90  76  90  76 /  40  40  40  60  50
Apalachicola  81  89  79  90  80 /  30  30  40  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Gadsden-
     Jackson-Leon.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
     Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-
     Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT