Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
359 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The upper level high over the southern plains will keep us in an
area of northwest flow overnight. Increased moisture from the east
will keep PoPs higher than normal, around 30-40 percent, for the
overnight hours. Lows will be in the upper 70s near the coast and
mid 70s inland.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

On Tuesday, strong ridging is present over the Southern Great
Plains. Meanwhile a deep trough is present over the Atlantic
Seaboard with a shortwave trough moving through the Ohio River
Valley. As a result, rain chances and cloud cover will be
increasing. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be more
numerous particularly for eastern portions of the region and along
the seabreeze. With instability already in place, a few severe
thunderstorms are likely with the main threat being damaging
winds. A cool front will likely move in Wednesday night bringing
nocturnal convection particularly near the coast. Tuesday, highs
will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices from 102 to 108
degrees. Wednesday, highs will be in the mid 90s with heat indices
of 102 to 106 degrees.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

A more unsettled pattern will dominate the long term forecast. By
Thursday, a deep trough will be over the Atlantic Seaboard with
ridging present over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The ridge
will drift into the region by Friday. However, sfc features (weak
low pressure and cold/stationary boundaries) will still be present
to sustain the increased rain chances. The best chance for rain
and thunderstorms will be in the eastern and southeastern counties
of Georgia and Florida. Nocturnal convection is likely near the
coast and over the Gulf. Expect this wet pattern to continue
through the weekend as a cold front stalls out over the region.
This pattern will bring some relief to the heat, particularly in
the southeast portion of the region where rain and clouds will
prevail. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period.
Included VCTS for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with the
greatest chance at ECP and DHN.

&&

.Marine...

Light winds will become moderate and westerly by Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will increase to cautionary levels by Wednesday morning
along with 3 to 4 foot seas. By Friday, winds will become light to
moderate again. An unsettled weather pattern will be in place this
week, bringing increased chances for rain and thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms will likely have very gusty winds.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Area rivers remain below bankfull levels. Scattered showers and
storms are expected this week, but heavy rainfall should be
relatively localized. Flooding is not expected on any of the
larger area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  94  75  94  77 /  40  60  30  50  30
Panama City   81  90  80  90  80 /  20  40  30  40  30
Dothan        75  97  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  30  30
Albany        75  96  75  95  76 /  30  40  30  40  30
Valdosta      74  94  74  94  76 /  40  60  30  50  30
Cross City    77  90  76  92  78 /  30  50  30  50  40
Apalachicola  80  90  80  91  80 /  20  30  30  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     TSTM WND GST     CAIRNS AAF              31.28N 85.71W
07/13/2015  M59 MPH          DALE               AL   AWOS

            59 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT KOZR

&&

DVD