Severe Thunderstorm Warning 235, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
926 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO REVEAL THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO MISSISSIPPI BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH ALREADY
OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE NOTED AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
6.3-6.5 C/KM RANGE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. GIVEN THAT WE
EXPECT DECENT DELTA THETAE VALUES AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THIS MORNING...AND
THIS COULD SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON TO BE
AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
ALREADY PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION...SO VERY
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POPS FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [652 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

THIS EVENING WE EXPECT FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WITH A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN, LIGHT WINDS, AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AROUND FIREWORKS TIME.
(RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE TO 50 PERCENT IN CENTRAL AL AND
GA).

A BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY, ENHANCING THE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF OUR
REGION BY MONDAY, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE WEAK LONG
WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED DEEP MOIST
CONVECTIVE CELLS. WITH THE EXPECTED ABOVE-AVERAGE CLOUD COVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FORECAST THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY, TO BE REPLACED
BY A RELATIVELY SKINNY RIDGE WHICH WILL ACT AS A BRIDGE BETWEEN
HEIGHT MAXIMA IN TX AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL REMAIN WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS,
ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THIS LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN GENERALLY
CORRELATES WELL WITH CLIMO POPS (30-40 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING) AND TEMPERATURES (LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S).

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL
FL.

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

.HYDROLOGY...

RIVER STAGES REMAINED BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION LEVELS, AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   93  73  90  72  91 /  50  20  60  30  40
PANAMA CITY   88  78  85  77  86 /  20  20  60  20  40
DOTHAN        89  72  87  71  88 /  60  30  60  30  40
ALBANY        91  72  88  71  89 /  60  30  60  40  40
VALDOSTA      94  72  91  71  91 /  50  20  60  30  40
CROSS CITY    92  73  91  73  91 /  40  20  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  89  78  86  75  88 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER