Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Tallahassee, FL

821 
WWUS52 KTAE 301609
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1109 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FLC131-301619-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-150630T1645Z/
WALTON FL-
1109 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WALTON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3063 8592 3066 8587 3068 8587 3070 8585
      3075 8564 3074 8562 3075 8562 3077 8552
      3050 8551 3049 8587 3050 8586 3050 8588
      3052 8589 3056 8588 3056 8589 3058 8589
      3059 8592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1609Z 267DEG 32KT 3056 8572 

$$

FLC133-301645-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-150630T1645Z/
WASHINGTON FL-
1109 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 1109 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR VERNON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VERNON...CHIPLEY...BRADFORD...LIVE OAK...WAUSAU...SUNNY HILLS...
GREENHEAD...SMYRNA...SPRING HOLLOW...BROCK CROSSROAD...POPLAR HEAD...
WHITEHEAD CROSSROADS...HINSONS CROSSROADS...FIVE POINTS...MILLERS
FERRY...JOHNSON CROSSROADS...SYLVANIA...HOLMES VALLEY...ORANGE HILL
AND PORTER LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3063 8592 3066 8587 3068 8587 3070 8585
      3075 8564 3074 8562 3075 8562 3077 8552
      3050 8551 3049 8587 3050 8586 3050 8588
      3052 8589 3056 8588 3056 8589 3058 8589
      3059 8592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1609Z 267DEG 32KT 3056 8572 

$$

42-DVD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH AN MCS ORGANIZING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS AND AL AND PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
12Z KTAE SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING DEPICTS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND 6.7 C/KM AND SBCAPE ALREADY
OVER 2000 J/KG. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ABOVE AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WITH 700 MB WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE SHEAR FOR THIS TIME YEAR. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...THERE IS NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER OR EARLY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS COUPLED WITH SHEAR THAT IS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO THE UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT
WAS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS
RECEIVED WITH THE CONVECTION BACK IN CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN EXPLICIT 50
KNOT GUSTS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ANOTHER SIGN
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [628 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT'S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP AND TLH THIS MORNING
AND AT OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  92  73  92 /  60  40  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  78  88  76  89 /  50  40  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  71  92  72  91 /  60  50  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  93  71  92 /  60  50  40  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  72  92  73  92 /  60  40  50  30  60
CROSS CITY    90  74  91  73  91 /  50  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  88  78  88  77  90 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP