Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
420 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT,
PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN IS ALLOWING STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT PLENTIFUL WARM, MOIST,
GULF AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA. COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL REMAIN MOST ACTIVE NORTH OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY TO
VALDOSTA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT A BRIEF LULL BETWEEN WHEN THESE STORMS TO THE
NORTH DIMINISH AND ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS,
STARTING NEAR PANAMA CITY, THEN FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA BY
AROUND SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD
PUSH SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO STALL NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE STILL EXPECT A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2
INCHES. THEREFORE, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE
AN HOUR OR TWO OF TRAINING STORMS CAN SET UP. FAVORABLE FORCING
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A FAIRLY HIGH
COVERAGE OF STORMS. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING
BEING FOCUSED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN COASTAL AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 10. FOR THE AFTERNOON, THEY SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT
AND NORTH OF THE INCREASINGLY STABLE AREAS NEAR THE COAST (DUE TO
MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY).

FOR MONDAY, THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AS THE
SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE
12Z NAM DOES NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR.
THEREFORE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY, BUT THE MAJORITY OF MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE GREATER LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE, AND THUS RAIN
CHANCES, SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY, AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
80S, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID. MONDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S, EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE RAIN IS A
LITTLE MORE LIKELY - GENERALLY IN OUR FLORIDA ZONES.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
WORK WEEK, LEADING TO A TYPE 5 SEA BREEZE REGIME IN OUR LOCAL
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. THAT PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR A
RELATIVELY EARLY START TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN OUR FLORIDA ZONES
WITH A FAIRLY HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN SOUTH OF A DOTHAN TO VALDOSTA
LINE. WE TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING,
BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE SEA BREEZE CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS. A
TREND TOWARD A WEAKER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
PUSHING INTO THE MID 90S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] VFR-MVFR CIGS TODAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DIRECTLY AFFECT DHN AND ABY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON,
WITH VCTS KEPT IN AT ECP, TLH, AND VLD, WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE
LOWER. GUSTY WINDS (15-20 KTS) FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, WITH HIGHER GUSTS (25+ KTS) AND REDUCED VSBYS EXPECTED WHEN
STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECT TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR, AT LEAST BRIEFLY, AS STORMS DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING STORMS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

BREEZY WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, LIKELY IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. A SCEC HEADLINE WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEST WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE DURING THE WORK WEEK, WITH SEAS RETURNING TO GENERALLY 2
FEET OR LESS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
WETTING RAIN LIKELY. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

OVERALL, RELATIVELY FAST WEST-TO-EAST STORM MOTIONS SHOULD KEEP
RAINFALL TOTALS IN CHECK THIS WEEKEND, DESPITE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER A GIVEN
LOCATION FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD FLOODING, OR FLOODING ON PRIMARY RIVERS, IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SHOULD
RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   75  87  74  89  74 /  50  60  40  40  20
PANAMA CITY   79  85  77  85  78 /  70  60  40  30  30
DOTHAN        72  88  71  90  72 /  60  40  20  10  10
ALBANY        73  88  71  90  72 /  60  40  20  10  10
VALDOSTA      74  88  71  89  72 /  40  60  40  30  10
CROSS CITY    77  89  74  88  74 /  40  70  40  60  30
APALACHICOLA  78  87  77  88  78 /  60  70  50  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS