Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Tallahassee, FL

023 
WWUS52 KTAE 210003
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
703 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

ALC061-FLC059-210012-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-150321T0015Z/
GENEVA AL-HOLMES FL-
703 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN GENEVA AND NORTHERN
HOLMES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. 
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3119 8607 3120 8593 3117 8579 3094 8594
      3114 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 309DEG 18KT 3102 8583 

$$

52-MCDERMOTT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
439 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA NEAR ALBANY AND EXTENDING WEST, JUST NORTH OF
DOTHAN. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY MID 60S DEW POINTS AND
DECENT INSOLATION IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS. WITH SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT THIS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. AS WE MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT.

WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AND CALM WINDS, PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND BOTTOM OUT AROUND THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE REMNANT SHORT WAVE REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THERE
ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW TRACK WITH THE
EURO GENERALLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS IN BRINGING IT EASTWARD.
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SEA BREEZE.
POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-40% RANGE. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. BY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, POPS WILL RANGE FROM CATEGORICAL (80%)
NORTH TO CHANCE (30-40%) ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES NORTH OF A DOTHAN TO
MOULTRIE LINE WHERE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND FREQUENT RAIN WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...
MONDAY'S POPS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANCE ONCE WE GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE TIMING OF THE LOW. FOR THE TIME BEING, POPS REFLECT THE LOW
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS EAST DROPPING OFF
TO ABOUT 40% FROM PANAMA CITY WEST. A BRIEF LULL IN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AT UPPER
LEVELS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD. THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK INCREASING POPS ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] MOST TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 4-5K FEET. DHN AND ABY COULD SEE VCSH/VCTS LATER
THIS EVENING. LARGEST CONCERN IS HOW LOW CIGS/VIS WILL DROP
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER
BEGINNING AROUND THE 03-06Z TIME PERIOD. FROM 06Z- 12Z ALL
TERMINALS ARE LIKELY TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AS VIS IS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE AND CIGS LOWER AT MOST TERMINALS
TO NEAR 1000 FEET. AFTER 14Z DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD HELP INCREASE
VISIBILITIES, BUT LOW CIGS COULD STILL PERSIST THROUGH 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING
IN A CONTINUATION OF RATHER LOW WINDS AND SEAS EVEN AS RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AHEAD OF WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. BY MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOST OF THE INCREASE WILL OCCUR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MORE ORGANIZED
CHANCES OF RAIN BY SUNDAY. RAINFALL THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS NEARING
3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SOME RIVER POINTS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA TO APPROACH OR EXCEED ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  86  64  81  62 /  20  30  30  60  60
PANAMA CITY   66  76  64  75  64 /  20  20  20  40  60
DOTHAN        63  81  62  74  60 /  40  30  50  70  70
ALBANY        62  81  59  72  59 /  30  20  50  80  80
VALDOSTA      64  85  62  81  61 /  30  30  30  70  60
CROSS CITY    62  85  62  82  61 /  10  20  10  40  40
APALACHICOLA  66  78  65  77  65 /  10  10  20  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY