Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Tallahassee, FL

650 
WWUS52 KTAE 242329
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
729 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

GAC027-242338-
/O.EXP.KTAE.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-150624T2330Z/
BROOKS GA-
729 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL BROOKS COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 730 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TALLAHASSEE.

LAT...LON 3081 8343 3082 8345 3080 8345 3078 8346
      3079 8366 3093 8367 3097 8344 3096 8344
      3095 8343 3091 8344 3090 8343 3082 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 256DEG 7KT 3087 8352 

$$

42-DVD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAVE SERVED TO
STABILIZE CONDITIONS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THIS TO CAUSE DELAYED
INITIATION AND DECREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON-EVENING STORMS IN
THESE ZONES. TO THE EAST, HOWEVER, LOCAL SATELLITE AND RADAR
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
JUST TO OUR NORTH. BUMPED DOWN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND STABILIZATION THIS MORNING,
BUT STILL EXPECTING A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING IN OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE IS FOCUSING IT ALONG NORTH
FLORIDA NEAR THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE FOR NOW, THOUGH DEPENDING
ON MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH, NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
MAY BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...

A RATHER FLAT MOSTLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXTEND OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY ALLOWING A TROUGH TO DIG ALL THE WAY
TO THE GULF COAST. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SWWD FROM A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CAROLINA'S. THIS
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
KEEP AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH POPS ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS (MOSTLY 60-70%) FOR BOTH DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH REACHES IT'S MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE SUNDAY NIGHT, IT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND LAY OUT ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH THE
TROUGH DE-AMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY
(60%) AND POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ADJUSTING
UPWARD FROM THE CURRENT CHANCE CATEGORY (30-40%). TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THAT CALM OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR ECP AND TLH AFTER 06Z,
BUT KEPT AS VCTS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

OTHER THAN HIGH DISPERSIONS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, ESPECIALLY BY THE
WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   76  93  75  92  74 /  20  70  40  60  30
PANAMA CITY   77  89  78  88  79 /  20  60  40  60  30
DOTHAN        74  92  74  91  73 /  20  60  40  60  30
ALBANY        75  95  75  92  74 /  30  50  40  60  30
VALDOSTA      75  95  74  92  74 /  30  70  40  60  30
CROSS CITY    76  92  74  91  75 /  20  70  40  60  30
APALACHICOLA  79  90  78  89  79 /  20  60  40  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY