Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE SEA-BREEZE
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
BRINGS WARM, MOIST AIR INLAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH STACKED
HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR EAST, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW 90S IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS IS
HIGHER, BUT MAY REACH UP TO THE MID-UPPER 80S IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH THE LATE START TO THE SEA-BREEZE
TODAY, STORMS MAY LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP
INTO THE LOW 70S.

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

STACKED HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA WILL
KEEP POPS LIMITED TO 20 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. THE COMBINATION OF THESE HIGH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S MAY CAUSE THE MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED 100 IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA BREEZE. POPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE WEEKEND, IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF, HOWEVER,
RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL TO OUR WEST.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 15-20 KTS, BUT WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS MAY APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS ON MONDAY
DUE TO ELEVATED SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WITH RIVERS AT NORMAL TO LOW LEVELS AND NO HEAVY WIDESPREAD RAIN
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  96  72  95  74 /  20  10  10  20  10
PANAMA CITY   76  87  76  87  77 /  20  10  10  20  10
DOTHAN        72  95  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  20  10
ALBANY        71  97  73  97  75 /  20  10  10  20  10
VALDOSTA      70  96  70  96  73 /  20  10  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    70  95  72  95  74 /  20  10  10  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  90  75  90  77 /  20  10   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...MOORE